France · Ligue 1

Lens vs Auxerre

Kick-off 16:15 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Lens 60.6% Draw 24.5% Auxerre 14.9%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Lens 3 wins, 1 draws, Auxerre 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.8%

Exact-score model probability

Lens

W W L W D D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

Auxerre

W W W L D D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:7 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Lens 3wins ·1 draws ·Auxerre 1wins

Lens 1-0 AuxerreJan 17, 2026

Lens 2-1 AuxerreOct 4, 2025

Lens 0-4 AuxerreApr 27, 2025

Lens 2-2 AuxerreDec 14, 2024

Lens 3-1 AuxerreJun 3, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lens win60.6%

Draw24.5%

Auxerre win14.9%

Over 1.5 goals72.2%

Over 2.5 goals88.3%

Over 3.5 goals24.5%

Both teams to score82.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

89.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.5%

Both Halves Over 0.577.6%

Goal in Both Halves77.6%

Home or Draw (1X)75.2%

Draw No Bet - Home69.8%

Home Win56.9%

Draw or Away (X2)43.0%

Draw No Bet - Away30.2%

Away Win24.6%

Draw18.3%

Exactly 1 Goal5.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.7%

Over 2.5 Goals80.2%

Under 5.5 Goals73.8%

Over 3.5 Goals62.2%

4+ Goals62.2%

Under 4.5 Goals57.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals49.8%

Over 4.5 Goals42.9%

Under 3.5 Goals37.8%

3-4 Goals37.3%

1-3 Goals36.3%

2-3 Goals30.5%

Over 5.5 Goals26.2%

Under 2.5 Goals19.8%

1-2 Goals18.3%

Exactly 3 Goals18.0%

Exactly 2 Goals12.5%

Under 1.5 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.4%

Away Team to Score81.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.4%

Home Clean Sheet18.1%

Home Win to Nil16.8%

Away Clean Sheet7.4%

Away Win to Nil6.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.4%

Away Over 0.581.7%

Home Over 1.573.1%

Away Over 1.550.8%

Home Over 2.547.9%

Home 3+ Goals47.9%

Away Exactly 130.9%

Away Exactly 226.4%

Home Exactly 225.1%

Away Over 2.524.4%

Away 3+ Goals24.4%

Home Exactly 119.3%

Away Exactly 018.1%

Home Exactly 07.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)56.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)43.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away43.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.8%

Home to win by 3+20.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 119.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.4%

Home to win by 216.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.0%

Away to win by 113.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.1%

Away to win by 27.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.6%

Away to win by 3+4.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.6%

Home & Over 2.548.8%

Home & BTTS40.1%

Away & Over 2.520.3%

Away & BTTS18.5%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

Home & No BTTS16.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.7%

Draw & Over 2.511.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.5%

Home & Under 2.58.1%

Draw & Under 2.57.3%

Away & No BTTS6.1%

BTTS & Under 2.56.0%

Away & Under 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.6%

HT Over 1.557.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.2%

HT Home Win45.3%

HT Under 1.542.3%

HT/FT Home/Home37.7%

HT Both Teams Score37.0%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.6%

HT Away Win24.2%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.8%

HT/FT Away/Away14.5%

HT Under 0.514.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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