France · Ligue 1

Lens vs Lyon

Kick-off 19:45 · Fri, Oct 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Lens 48.5% Draw 25.6% Lyon 25.9%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lyon: 7 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.6%

Exact-score model probability

Lens

L D W L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 12:11 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.83

Lyon

D W D L W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Lens 3wins ·1 draws ·Lyon 1wins

Lens 4-0 LyonMay 17, 2026

Lens 0-1 LyonAug 16, 2025

Lens 2-1 LyonMay 4, 2025

Lens 0-0 LyonSep 15, 2024

Lens 3-0 LyonMar 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lens win48.5%

Draw25.6%

Lyon win25.9%

Over 1.5 goals78.4%

Over 2.5 goals74.4%

Over 3.5 goals31.9%

Both teams to score70.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.2%

Home Team to Score

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)81.5%

Home or Away (12)80.7%

Draw No Bet - Home77.1%

Both Halves Over 0.567.2%

Goal in Both Halves67.2%

Home Win62.2%

Draw or Away (X2)37.7%

Draw No Bet - Away22.9%

Draw19.3%

Away Win18.5%

Exactly 1 Goal10.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.8%

Under 5.5 Goals86.3%

Over 1.5 Goals85.9%

Under 4.5 Goals73.4%

Over 2.5 Goals67.1%

2-4 Goals59.3%

Under 3.5 Goals54.6%

1-3 Goals51.4%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals45.4%

4+ Goals45.4%

2-3 Goals40.5%

3-4 Goals40.5%

Under 2.5 Goals32.9%

1-2 Goals29.7%

Over 4.5 Goals26.6%

Exactly 3 Goals21.7%

Exactly 2 Goals18.8%

Under 1.5 Goals14.1%

Over 5.5 Goals13.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals3.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.8%

Away Team to Score69.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.0%

Home Clean Sheet30.9%

Home Win to Nil27.7%

Away Clean Sheet10.2%

Away Win to Nil7.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.8%

Away Over 0.569.1%

Home Over 1.566.5%

Home Over 2.539.9%

Home 3+ Goals39.9%

Away Exactly 136.3%

Away Over 1.532.8%

Away Exactly 030.9%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 123.3%

Away Exactly 221.3%

Away Over 2.511.5%

Away 3+ Goals11.5%

Home Exactly 010.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)78.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away78.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)60.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away60.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.2%

Home to win by 122.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.5%

Home to win by 3+21.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 218.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.4%

Away to win by 111.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.9%

Away to win by 24.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.1%

Away to win by 3+2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.553.6%

Home & Over 2.546.8%

Home & BTTS34.5%

Home & No BTTS27.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.4%

Draw & BTTS16.1%

Home & Under 2.515.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.5%

Away & Over 2.512.6%

Draw & Under 2.511.6%

Away & BTTS11.4%

BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Draw & Over 2.57.7%

Away & No BTTS7.0%

Away & Under 2.55.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.9%

HT Under 1.553.9%

HT Home Win47.2%

HT Over 1.546.1%

2nd Half More Goals46.1%

HT/FT Home/Home41.1%

HT Draw34.2%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score26.4%

Equal Goals Each Half22.1%

HT Under 0.521.1%

HT Away Win18.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.5%

HT/FT Away/Away10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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