France · Ligue 1

Lens vs Marseille

Kick-off 20:45 · Sun, Nov 8

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Lens 49.6% Draw 23.6% Marseille 26.8%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 6.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Marseille: 6 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.8%

Exact-score model probability

Lens

L L W L W L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 6:17 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.83

Marseille

W W W W L L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 14:8 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Lens 2wins ·0 draws ·Marseille 3wins

Lens 1-3 MarseilleJan 24, 2026

Lens 2-1 MarseilleOct 25, 2025

Lens 1-0 MarseilleMar 8, 2025

Lens 1-3 MarseilleNov 23, 2024

Lens 1-2 MarseilleApr 28, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lens win49.6%

Draw23.6%

Marseille win26.8%

Over 1.5 goals84.4%

Over 2.5 goals95.4%

Over 3.5 goals41.3%

Both teams to score85.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)85.4%

Both Halves Over 0.584.8%

Goal in Both Halves84.8%

Draw or Away (X2)83.7%

Draw No Bet - Away82.0%

Away Win70.0%

Home or Draw (1X)29.1%

Draw No Bet - Home18.0%

Home Win15.4%

Draw13.7%

Exactly 1 Goal3.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals95.5%

Over 2.5 Goals87.8%

Over 3.5 Goals74.6%

4+ Goals74.6%

Under 5.5 Goals60.0%

Over 4.5 Goals57.5%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Under 4.5 Goals42.5%

Over 5.5 Goals40.0%

2-4 Goals38.0%

3-4 Goals30.2%

Under 3.5 Goals25.4%

1-3 Goals23.9%

2-3 Goals20.9%

Exactly 3 Goals13.2%

Under 2.5 Goals12.2%

1-2 Goals10.7%

Exactly 2 Goals7.7%

Under 1.5 Goals4.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.9%

Home Team to Score80.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.7%

Away Clean Sheet18.2%

Away Win to Nil17.6%

Home Clean Sheet3.2%

Home Win to Nil2.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.9%

Away Over 1.585.0%

Home Over 0.580.9%

Away Over 2.566.1%

Away 3+ Goals66.1%

Home Over 1.550.1%

Home Exactly 130.8%

Home Exactly 226.1%

Home Over 2.523.9%

Home 3+ Goals23.9%

Away Exactly 218.9%

Home Exactly 018.2%

Away Exactly 111.0%

Away Exactly 03.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home88.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)83.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away83.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)78.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home78.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)70.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)64.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home64.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)52.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away52.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)46.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home46.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)34.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away34.9%

Away to win by 3+34.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)29.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home29.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away20.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.7%

Away to win by 217.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.4%

Away to win by 117.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away10.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw10.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.6%

Home to win by 18.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away4.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.3%

Home to win by 24.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.5%

Home to win by 3+2.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.9%

Away & Over 2.564.5%

Away & BTTS52.4%

Away & No BTTS17.6%

Home & Over 2.513.5%

Draw & BTTS13.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.9%

Home & BTTS12.8%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.9%

Away & Under 2.55.5%

Draw & Under 2.54.0%

BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Home & No BTTS2.6%

Home & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.1%

HT Over 1.567.3%

HT Away Win56.1%

HT/FT Away/Away50.2%

2nd Half More Goals49.9%

HT Both Teams Score42.1%

HT Under 1.532.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw25.5%

HT Home Win18.3%

Equal Goals Each Half17.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.3%

HT Under 0.59.9%

HT/FT Home/Home8.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Away5.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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