Mexico · Liga MX

Leon vs CF Pachuca

Full time · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Leon 3.6% Draw 13.1% CF Pachuca 83.3%

Over 2.5 - 60% BTTS - 35%

✓ Pick was correct (1:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 39%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 15.6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15.6%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

39%

Market does not fully agree

Leon

L L

Form 0-0-2 Goals 2:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

CF Pachuca

L W L W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 8:3 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Leon win3.6%

Draw13.1%

CF Pachuca win83.3%

Over 1.5 goals82.6%

Over 2.5 goals60.4%

Over 3.5 goals38.0%

Both teams to score35.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)95.5%

Draw No Bet - Away95.1%

Home or Away (12)88.2%

Away Win83.8%

Both Halves Over 0.562.0%

Goal in Both Halves62.0%

Home or Draw (1X)16.0%

Exactly 1 Goal13.7%

Draw11.7%

Draw No Bet - Home4.9%

Home Win4.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.4%

Under 5.5 Goals90.5%

Over 1.5 Goals81.7%

Under 4.5 Goals79.5%

Under 3.5 Goals62.1%

2-4 Goals61.3%

Over 2.5 Goals60.3%

1-3 Goals57.5%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals43.8%

3-4 Goals39.8%

Under 2.5 Goals39.7%

Over 3.5 Goals37.9%

4+ Goals37.9%

1-2 Goals35.1%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Exactly 2 Goals21.4%

Over 4.5 Goals20.5%

Under 1.5 Goals18.3%

Over 5.5 Goals9.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.6%

Exactly 0 Goals4.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score92.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)65.8%

Away Clean Sheet63.0%

Away Win to Nil58.6%

Home Team to Score36.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)34.2%

Home Clean Sheet6.9%

Home Win to Nil2.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.592.9%

Away Over 1.574.4%

Home Exactly 063.0%

Away Over 2.549.6%

Away 3+ Goals49.6%

Home Over 0.536.8%

Home Exactly 129.0%

Away Exactly 224.7%

Away Exactly 118.5%

Home Over 1.57.8%

Away Exactly 06.9%

Home Exactly 26.7%

Home Over 2.51.2%

Home 3+ Goals1.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away99.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away95.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)89.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home89.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)83.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)78.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home78.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)63.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away63.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)59.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home59.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)40.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away40.3%

Away to win by 3+40.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)36.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home36.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw23.0%

Away to win by 223.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)21.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away21.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.5%

Away to win by 120.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw18.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)16.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home16.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw11.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away9.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw6.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)4.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw3.5%

Home to win by 13.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw0.7%

Home to win by 20.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.1%

Home to win by 3+0.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & No BTTS58.6%

Away & Over 2.556.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.534.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.531.4%

BTTS & Over 2.528.9%

Away & Under 2.527.3%

Away & BTTS25.2%

Draw & Under 2.59.8%

Draw & BTTS7.3%

BTTS & Under 2.55.4%

Home & No BTTS2.6%

Home & Under 2.52.5%

Draw & Over 2.51.9%

Home & Over 2.51.8%

Home & BTTS1.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.5%

HT Away Win62.7%

HT/FT Away/Away60.5%

HT Under 1.558.9%

2nd Half More Goals45.0%

HT Over 1.541.1%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Draw31.0%

HT Under 0.524.5%

Equal Goals Each Half23.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away21.3%

HT Both Teams Score13.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.8%

HT Home Win6.3%

HT/FT Home/Home2.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home1.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Away/Home0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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