Mexico · Liga MX

Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas

Kick-off 03:10 · Mon, Nov 9

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Leon 21.1% Draw 22.7% Guadalajara Chivas 56.2%

Over 2.5 - 67% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

65%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Guadalajara Chivas: 9 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.5%

Exact-score model probability

Leon

D W L D W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 8:8 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Guadalajara Chivas

W W W D D W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 10:3 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Leon win21.1%

Draw22.7%

Guadalajara Chivas win56.2%

Over 1.5 goals87.1%

Over 2.5 goals67.1%

Over 3.5 goals45.4%

Both teams to score65.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.8%

Away Team to Score

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.5%

Draw or Away (X2)77.7%

Draw No Bet - Away72.0%

Both Halves Over 0.567.1%

Goal in Both Halves67.1%

Away Win57.3%

Home or Draw (1X)42.7%

Draw No Bet - Home28.0%

Home Win22.3%

Draw20.4%

Exactly 1 Goal10.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.8%

Under 5.5 Goals86.3%

Over 1.5 Goals85.9%

Under 4.5 Goals73.4%

Over 2.5 Goals67.1%

2-4 Goals59.3%

Under 3.5 Goals54.6%

1-3 Goals51.4%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals45.4%

4+ Goals45.4%

2-3 Goals40.5%

3-4 Goals40.5%

Under 2.5 Goals32.9%

1-2 Goals29.7%

Over 4.5 Goals26.6%

Exactly 3 Goals21.7%

Exactly 2 Goals18.8%

Under 1.5 Goals14.1%

Over 5.5 Goals13.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals3.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score88.5%

Home Team to Score72.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.8%

Away Clean Sheet27.4%

Away Win to Nil24.3%

Home Clean Sheet11.5%

Home Win to Nil8.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.588.5%

Home Over 0.572.5%

Away Over 1.563.7%

Home Over 1.537.1%

Away Over 2.536.8%

Away 3+ Goals36.8%

Home Exactly 135.5%

Home Exactly 027.4%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 124.8%

Home Exactly 222.9%

Home Over 2.514.1%

Home 3+ Goals14.1%

Away Exactly 011.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home81.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away77.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)64.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home64.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)57.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)42.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home42.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)35.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away35.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)22.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.0%

Away to win by 122.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away18.1%

Away to win by 3+18.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.2%

Away to win by 217.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.1%

Home to win by 113.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away7.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.1%

Home to win by 26.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.0%

Home to win by 3+3.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.555.4%

Away & Over 2.543.1%

Away & BTTS33.0%

Away & No BTTS24.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.0%

Draw & BTTS17.3%

Home & Over 2.515.6%

Away & Under 2.514.2%

Home & BTTS13.9%

Draw & Under 2.512.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.7%

BTTS & Under 2.58.8%

Draw & Over 2.58.5%

Home & No BTTS8.3%

Home & Under 2.56.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.9%

HT Under 1.553.9%

HT Over 1.546.1%

2nd Half More Goals46.1%

HT Away Win43.8%

HT/FT Away/Away37.1%

HT Draw34.9%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score27.5%

Equal Goals Each Half22.1%

HT Home Win21.3%

HT Under 0.521.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.5%

HT/FT Home/Home12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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