UEFA Champions League

Levski Sofia vs Kairat Almaty

Kick-off 18:30 · Tue, Aug 4

📊 Our Prediction

Home or Draw (1X)

42% confidence

Levski Sofia 42.0% Draw 30.0% Kairat Almaty 28.0%

Over 2.5 - 35% BTTS - 44%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Levski home strength

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 83%

⚠️ AIs disagree

60%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 2.5 Goals

Defensive solidity

70%

Both Teams Score (GG)

Attacking threat

65%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Levski Sofia have a strong home record, scoring 2.5 goals per game. Kairat Almaty have been solid defensively, with 2 clean sheets in their last 4 matches. The pi-ratings suggest Levski Sofia are stronger, but not by a significant margin. With both teams having a decent attacking threat, a home win or draw is likely.

💡

Top Tip

Back Home or Draw for a relatively safe bet

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 72% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 28.0% on the only losing outcome.

Levski home strength

Recent form leans to Kairat Almaty: 8 points versus 9 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.25 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home or Draw (1X)

1X · Home or Draw

72%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

28%

Only the uncovered result loses

Bookmaker implied chance

83%

Market agrees with this pick

Levski Sofia

D W W D

Form 2-2-0 Goals 8:3 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.75

Kairat Almaty

W L W W

Form 3-0-1 Goals 5:2 Scored/game 1.25 Conceded/game 0.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Levski Sofia win42.0%

Draw30.0%

Kairat Almaty win28.0%

Over 1.5 goals63.5%

Over 2.5 goals34.9%

Over 3.5 goals15.9%

Both teams to score44.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.5%

Over 0.5 Goals

87.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)70.4%

Home or Away (12)70.2%

Draw or Away (X2)59.5%

Draw No Bet - Home57.8%

Draw No Bet - Away42.2%

Both Halves Over 0.541.6%

Goal in Both Halves41.6%

Home Win40.5%

Draw29.8%

Away Win29.6%

Exactly 1 Goal25.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.0%

Under 4.5 Goals93.9%

Over 0.5 Goals87.6%

Under 3.5 Goals84.1%

1-3 Goals71.7%

Under 2.5 Goals65.3%

Over 1.5 Goals61.7%

2-4 Goals55.6%

1-2 Goals52.9%

Total Goals Even50.8%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

2-3 Goals45.8%

Under 1.5 Goals38.3%

Over 2.5 Goals34.7%

3-4 Goals28.6%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

Exactly 3 Goals18.8%

Over 3.5 Goals15.9%

4+ Goals15.9%

Under 0.5 Goals12.4%

Exactly 0 Goals12.4%

Over 4.5 Goals6.1%

Over 5.5 Goals2.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score68.3%

Away Team to Score60.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)58.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)41.6%

Home Clean Sheet39.1%

Away Clean Sheet31.7%

Home Win to Nil26.7%

Away Win to Nil19.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.568.3%

Away Over 0.560.9%

Away Exactly 039.1%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 136.4%

Home Over 1.531.9%

Home Exactly 031.7%

Away Over 1.524.1%

Home Exactly 220.9%

Away Exactly 217.2%

Home Over 2.511.0%

Home 3+ Goals11.0%

Away Over 2.56.9%

Away 3+ Goals6.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)82.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away82.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)59.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away59.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)40.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)29.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.5%

Home to win by 123.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.1%

Away to win by 119.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)17.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home17.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.6%

Home to win by 211.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.7%

Away to win by 27.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.5%

Home to win by 3+5.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.8%

Away to win by 3+2.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.551.9%

BTTS & Over 2.528.2%

Home & No BTTS26.7%

Draw & Under 2.525.8%

Home & Under 2.522.4%

Away & No BTTS19.3%

Home & Over 2.518.1%

Draw & BTTS17.4%

Away & Under 2.517.1%

Home & BTTS13.8%

BTTS & Under 2.513.4%

Away & Over 2.512.6%

Away & BTTS10.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.5%

Draw & Over 2.54.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.575.8%

HT Over 0.560.9%

HT Draw48.1%

2nd Half More Goals40.4%

HT Under 0.539.1%

Equal Goals Each Half29.8%

1st Half More Goals29.7%

HT Home Win29.2%

HT Over 1.524.2%

HT/FT Home/Home23.3%

HT Away Win22.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw20.7%

HT/FT Away/Away16.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.5%

HT Both Teams Score13.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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