France · Ligue 1

Lille vs Estac Troyes

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

73% confidence

Lille 73.0% Draw 18.7% Estac Troyes 8.2%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Lille: 10 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Lille 2 wins, 1 draws, Estac Troyes 1 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.4%

Exact-score model probability

Lille

L W D W L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Estac Troyes

L W D D L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 7:11 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 4

Lille 2wins ·1 draws ·Estac Troyes 1wins

Lille 1-1 Estac TroyesJun 3, 2023

Lille 5-1 Estac TroyesJan 15, 2023

Lille 0-3 Estac TroyesMay 1, 2022

Lille 2-1 Estac TroyesDec 4, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lille win73.0%

Draw18.7%

Estac Troyes win8.2%

Over 1.5 goals76.6%

Over 2.5 goals81.7%

Over 3.5 goals29.7%

Both teams to score74.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.8%

Home or Draw (1X)78.6%

Both Halves Over 0.575.4%

Goal in Both Halves75.4%

Draw No Bet - Home74.1%

Home Win60.6%

Draw or Away (X2)39.2%

Draw No Bet - Away25.9%

Away Win21.2%

Draw18.0%

Exactly 1 Goal6.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals91.4%

Over 2.5 Goals77.5%

Under 5.5 Goals77.1%

Under 4.5 Goals61.1%

Over 3.5 Goals58.5%

4+ Goals58.5%

2-4 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals41.5%

1-3 Goals39.7%

Over 4.5 Goals38.9%

3-4 Goals38.5%

2-3 Goals33.0%

Over 5.5 Goals22.9%

Under 2.5 Goals22.5%

1-2 Goals20.7%

Exactly 3 Goals19.0%

Exactly 2 Goals13.9%

Under 1.5 Goals8.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.3%

Away Team to Score77.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.0%

Home Clean Sheet22.0%

Home Win to Nil20.3%

Away Clean Sheet7.5%

Away Win to Nil5.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.3%

Away Over 0.577.9%

Home Over 1.572.9%

Home Over 2.547.7%

Home 3+ Goals47.7%

Away Over 1.544.6%

Away Exactly 133.3%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Away Exactly 225.2%

Away Exactly 022.0%

Home Exactly 119.5%

Away Over 2.519.4%

Away 3+ Goals19.4%

Home Exactly 07.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)78.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home78.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)77.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away77.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)22.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home22.9%

Home to win by 3+22.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.3%

Home to win by 120.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 217.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 111.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.0%

Away to win by 26.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.4%

Away to win by 3+3.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.565.5%

Home & Over 2.550.8%

Home & BTTS40.3%

Home & No BTTS20.3%

Away & Over 2.516.8%

Draw & BTTS16.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.9%

Away & BTTS15.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.0%

Draw & Over 2.59.9%

Home & Under 2.59.8%

Draw & Under 2.58.1%

BTTS & Under 2.56.5%

Away & No BTTS5.9%

Away & Under 2.54.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.2%

HT Over 1.555.1%

2nd Half More Goals47.7%

HT Home Win47.4%

HT Under 1.544.9%

HT/FT Home/Home40.5%

HT Both Teams Score34.0%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw31.0%

HT Away Win21.5%

Equal Goals Each Half20.1%

HT Under 0.515.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.8%

HT/FT Away/Away12.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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