France · Ligue 1

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain

Kick-off 19:45 · Fri, Aug 28

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Lille 29.6% Draw 28.5% Paris Saint Germain 41.9%

Over 2.5 - 52% BTTS - 57%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Lille 0 wins, 1 draws, Paris Saint Germain 4 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.6%

Exact-score model probability

Lille

W L W D W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 5:3 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 0.5

Paris Saint Germain

D L W W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Lille 0wins ·1 draws ·Paris Saint Germain 4wins

Lille 0-3 Paris Saint GermainJan 16, 2026

Lille 1-1 Paris Saint GermainOct 5, 2025

Lille 1-4 Paris Saint GermainMar 1, 2025

Lille 1-3 Paris Saint GermainSep 1, 2024

Lille 1-3 Paris Saint GermainFeb 10, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lille win29.6%

Draw28.5%

Paris Saint Germain win41.9%

Over 1.5 goals72.8%

Over 2.5 goals51.5%

Over 3.5 goals24.9%

Both teams to score56.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

91.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

85.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)78.2%

Home or Away (12)77.4%

Draw No Bet - Away71.9%

Both Halves Over 0.558.9%

Goal in Both Halves58.9%

Away Win55.6%

Home or Draw (1X)44.4%

Draw No Bet - Home28.1%

Draw22.6%

Home Win21.8%

Exactly 1 Goal15.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.7%

Under 5.5 Goals92.2%

Under 4.5 Goals82.5%

Over 1.5 Goals79.2%

Under 3.5 Goals66.0%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals60.7%

Over 2.5 Goals56.4%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals45.2%

Under 2.5 Goals43.6%

3-4 Goals38.9%

1-2 Goals38.3%

Over 3.5 Goals34.0%

4+ Goals34.0%

Exactly 2 Goals22.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.8%

Over 4.5 Goals17.5%

Over 5.5 Goals7.8%

Under 0.5 Goals5.3%

Exactly 0 Goals5.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score84.5%

Home Team to Score66.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.2%

Away Clean Sheet33.9%

Away Win to Nil28.7%

Home Clean Sheet15.5%

Home Win to Nil10.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.584.5%

Home Over 0.566.1%

Away Over 1.555.6%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 033.9%

Home Over 1.529.4%

Away Exactly 128.9%

Away Over 2.528.6%

Away 3+ Goals28.6%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 219.8%

Away Exactly 015.5%

Home Over 2.59.6%

Home 3+ Goals9.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)85.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home85.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)78.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away78.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)68.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home68.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)55.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)44.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home44.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)32.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away32.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.6%

Away to win by 123.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)21.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.0%

Away to win by 217.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away15.0%

Away to win by 3+15.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.7%

Home to win by 113.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.7%

Home to win by 25.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.3%

Home to win by 3+2.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.2%

Away & Over 2.536.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.0%

Away & No BTTS28.7%

Away & BTTS27.0%

Away & Under 2.518.9%

Draw & BTTS17.3%

Draw & Under 2.515.9%

Home & Over 2.513.0%

Home & BTTS11.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.2%

BTTS & Under 2.510.6%

Home & No BTTS10.3%

Home & Under 2.58.8%

Draw & Over 2.56.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.4%

HT Under 1.561.8%

2nd Half More Goals44.4%

HT Away Win41.4%

HT Draw38.6%

HT Over 1.538.2%

HT/FT Away/Away35.2%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Under 0.526.6%

Equal Goals Each Half24.3%

HT Both Teams Score21.9%

HT Home Win20.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.1%

HT/FT Home/Home12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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