UEFA Europa League

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

36% confidence

Lillestrom 35.8% Draw 33.3% Real Sociedad 30.9%

Over 2.5 - 35% BTTS - 44%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 13.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.5%

Exact-score model probability

Lillestrom

D D

Form 0-2-0 Goals 1:1 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 0.5

Real Sociedad

W W W L W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 14:11 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lillestrom win35.8%

Draw33.3%

Real Sociedad win30.9%

Over 1.5 goals64.1%

Over 2.5 goals35.4%

Over 3.5 goals16.4%

Both teams to score44.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

87.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

87.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)70.2%

Home or Draw (1X)67.3%

Draw or Away (X2)62.5%

Draw No Bet - Home53.4%

Draw No Bet - Away46.6%

Both Halves Over 0.542.2%

Goal in Both Halves42.2%

Home Win37.5%

Away Win32.7%

Draw29.8%

Exactly 1 Goal25.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.9%

Under 4.5 Goals93.6%

Over 0.5 Goals87.9%

Under 3.5 Goals83.6%

1-3 Goals71.5%

Under 2.5 Goals64.6%

Over 1.5 Goals62.4%

2-4 Goals56.0%

1-2 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Even50.7%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-3 Goals46.0%

Under 1.5 Goals37.6%

Over 2.5 Goals35.4%

3-4 Goals29.1%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

Exactly 3 Goals19.0%

Over 3.5 Goals16.4%

4+ Goals16.4%

Under 0.5 Goals12.1%

Exactly 0 Goals12.1%

Over 4.5 Goals6.4%

Over 5.5 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score66.8%

Away Team to Score63.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)57.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)42.5%

Home Clean Sheet36.4%

Away Clean Sheet33.2%

Home Win to Nil24.3%

Away Win to Nil21.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.566.8%

Away Over 0.563.6%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Home Exactly 136.6%

Away Exactly 036.4%

Home Exactly 033.2%

Home Over 1.530.2%

Away Over 1.526.8%

Home Exactly 220.2%

Away Exactly 218.6%

Home Over 2.510.0%

Home 3+ Goals10.0%

Away Over 2.58.2%

Away 3+ Goals8.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)67.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home67.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)62.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away62.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)37.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)32.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.3%

Home to win by 122.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.4%

Away to win by 120.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home15.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.5%

Home to win by 210.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.8%

Away to win by 28.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.7%

Home to win by 3+4.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.5%

Away to win by 3+3.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.551.1%

BTTS & Over 2.529.0%

Draw & Under 2.525.5%

Home & No BTTS24.3%

Away & No BTTS21.1%

Home & Under 2.520.7%

Away & Under 2.518.4%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

Home & Over 2.516.8%

Away & Over 2.514.3%

BTTS & Under 2.513.5%

Home & BTTS13.2%

Away & BTTS11.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.4%

Draw & Over 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.575.4%

HT Over 0.561.4%

HT Draw47.8%

2nd Half More Goals40.6%

HT Under 0.538.6%

1st Half More Goals29.8%

Equal Goals Each Half29.6%

HT Home Win27.5%

HT Away Win24.6%

HT Over 1.524.6%

HT/FT Home/Home21.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw20.4%

HT/FT Away/Away18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.5%

HT Both Teams Score14.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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