England · Premier League

Liverpool vs Arsenal

Kick-off 17:30 · Sun, Nov 1

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Liverpool 28.0% Draw 30.0% Arsenal 42.1%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Liverpool: 15 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.5%

Exact-score model probability

Liverpool

W W W W L W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 15:10 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Arsenal

W D W W W L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Liverpool 1wins ·3 draws ·Arsenal 1wins

Liverpool 0-0 ArsenalJan 8, 2026

Liverpool 1-0 ArsenalAug 31, 2025

Liverpool 2-2 ArsenalMay 11, 2025

Liverpool 2-2 ArsenalOct 27, 2024

Liverpool 1-3 ArsenalFeb 4, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Liverpool win28.0%

Draw30.0%

Arsenal win42.1%

Over 1.5 goals70.5%

Over 2.5 goals68.2%

Over 3.5 goals22.1%

Both teams to score69.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.6%

Under 5.5 Goals

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.5%

Draw or Away (X2)66.4%

Both Halves Over 0.562.5%

Goal in Both Halves62.5%

Home or Draw (1X)57.0%

Draw No Bet - Away56.1%

Draw No Bet - Home43.9%

Away Win43.0%

Home Win33.6%

Draw23.4%

Exactly 1 Goal13.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Under 5.5 Goals89.9%

Over 1.5 Goals82.4%

Under 4.5 Goals78.8%

Over 2.5 Goals61.2%

Under 3.5 Goals61.1%

2-4 Goals61.1%

1-3 Goals56.9%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.5%

3-4 Goals39.9%

Over 3.5 Goals38.9%

4+ Goals38.9%

Under 2.5 Goals38.8%

1-2 Goals34.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals21.2%

Exactly 2 Goals21.2%

Under 1.5 Goals17.6%

Over 5.5 Goals10.1%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 0 Goals4.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score81.5%

Home Team to Score77.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.2%

Away Clean Sheet23.0%

Away Win to Nil18.7%

Home Clean Sheet18.5%

Home Win to Nil14.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.581.5%

Home Over 0.577.0%

Away Over 1.550.4%

Home Over 1.543.2%

Home Exactly 133.8%

Away Exactly 131.2%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Home Exactly 224.8%

Away Over 2.524.0%

Away 3+ Goals24.0%

Home Exactly 023.0%

Away Exactly 018.5%

Home Over 2.518.4%

Home 3+ Goals18.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)77.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home77.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)66.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away66.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)57.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home57.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)43.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)33.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)22.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away22.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.6%

Away to win by 120.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)15.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home15.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.9%

Away to win by 212.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.8%

Home to win by 29.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.4%

Away to win by 3+9.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.8%

Home to win by 3+5.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.552.3%

Away & Over 2.529.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.528.3%

Away & BTTS24.2%

Home & Over 2.522.8%

Home & BTTS19.4%

Draw & BTTS19.2%

Away & No BTTS18.7%

Draw & Under 2.514.8%

Home & No BTTS14.2%

Away & Under 2.513.2%

Home & Under 2.510.8%

BTTS & Under 2.510.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

Draw & Over 2.58.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.9%

HT Under 1.558.4%

2nd Half More Goals45.1%

HT Over 1.541.6%

HT Draw37.9%

HT Away Win34.0%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Home Win28.1%

HT/FT Away/Away26.2%

HT Both Teams Score25.8%

HT Under 0.524.1%

Equal Goals Each Half23.3%

HT/FT Home/Home19.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.9%

HT/FT Away/Home2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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