UEFA Champions League

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Sep 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

73% confidence

Liverpool 72.9% Draw 14.0% Atletico Madrid 13.1%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atletico Madrid: 7 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Liverpool

W D D D L D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 10:10 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Atletico Madrid

L W D W L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:11 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Liverpool win72.9%

Draw14.0%

Atletico Madrid win13.1%

Over 1.5 goals96.6%

Over 2.5 goals88.1%

Over 3.5 goals74.4%

Both teams to score77.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

89.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

87.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

87.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)86.0%

Home or Draw (1X)85.6%

Draw No Bet - Home84.4%

Both Halves Over 0.584.3%

Goal in Both Halves84.3%

Home Win72.6%

Draw or Away (X2)26.4%

Draw No Bet - Away15.6%

Away Win13.4%

Draw13.0%

Exactly 1 Goal3.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals95.2%

Over 2.5 Goals87.2%

Over 3.5 Goals73.6%

4+ Goals73.6%

Under 5.5 Goals61.2%

Over 4.5 Goals56.4%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Under 4.5 Goals43.6%

2-4 Goals38.9%

Over 5.5 Goals38.8%

3-4 Goals30.8%

Under 3.5 Goals26.4%

1-3 Goals24.8%

2-3 Goals21.6%

Exactly 3 Goals13.6%

Under 2.5 Goals12.8%

1-2 Goals11.2%

Exactly 2 Goals8.0%

Under 1.5 Goals4.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score78.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.8%

Home Clean Sheet20.4%

Home Win to Nil19.8%

Away Clean Sheet3.0%

Away Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.585.4%

Away Over 0.578.6%

Home Over 2.566.9%

Home 3+ Goals66.9%

Away Over 1.546.4%

Away Exactly 132.2%

Away Exactly 225.5%

Away Over 2.520.9%

Away 3+ Goals20.9%

Away Exactly 020.4%

Home Exactly 218.5%

Home Exactly 110.6%

Home Exactly 03.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)72.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)61.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away61.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)55.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home55.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)43.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away43.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)37.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home37.5%

Home to win by 3+37.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)26.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away26.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 218.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 117.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.7%

Away to win by 17.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.7%

Away to win by 23.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.0%

Away to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.8%

Home & Over 2.566.6%

Home & BTTS52.8%

Home & No BTTS19.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.4%

Draw & BTTS12.4%

Away & Over 2.511.6%

Away & BTTS11.0%

Draw & Over 2.58.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Home & Under 2.56.0%

Draw & Under 2.54.1%

BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Away & No BTTS2.4%

Away & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.8%

HT Over 1.566.6%

HT Home Win58.1%

HT/FT Home/Home52.7%

2nd Half More Goals49.8%

HT Both Teams Score40.4%

HT Under 1.533.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw25.2%

Equal Goals Each Half17.8%

HT Away Win16.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.6%

HT Under 0.510.2%

HT/FT Away/Away7.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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