England · Premier League

Liverpool vs Brighton

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Oct 25

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Liverpool 45.7% Draw 25.4% Brighton 28.9%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 6.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.34 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Liverpool 3 wins, 0 draws, Brighton 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.6%

Exact-score model probability

Liverpool

W W W L W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:10 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Brighton

W W W W D L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 19:5 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Liverpool 3wins ·0 draws ·Brighton 2wins

Liverpool 1-2 BrightonMar 21, 2026

Liverpool 2-0 BrightonDec 13, 2025

Liverpool 2-3 BrightonMay 19, 2025

Liverpool 2-1 BrightonNov 2, 2024

Liverpool 2-1 BrightonMar 31, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Liverpool win45.7%

Draw25.4%

Brighton win28.9%

Over 1.5 goals82.5%

Over 2.5 goals91.1%

Over 3.5 goals37.4%

Both teams to score83.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

88.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

88.7%

HT Over 0.5

88.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.3%

Both Halves Over 0.581.7%

Goal in Both Halves81.7%

Draw or Away (X2)74.2%

Draw No Bet - Away68.9%

Away Win56.7%

Home or Draw (1X)43.0%

Draw No Bet - Home31.1%

Home Win25.6%

Draw17.5%

Exactly 1 Goal4.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals94.7%

Over 2.5 Goals85.0%

Over 3.5 Goals69.5%

4+ Goals69.5%

Under 5.5 Goals66.2%

Over 4.5 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals48.8%

2-4 Goals43.6%

Over 5.5 Goals33.8%

3-4 Goals33.8%

Under 3.5 Goals30.5%

1-3 Goals29.3%

2-3 Goals25.2%

Exactly 3 Goals15.5%

Under 2.5 Goals15.0%

1-2 Goals13.9%

Exactly 2 Goals9.8%

Under 1.5 Goals5.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score93.8%

Home Team to Score85.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.9%

Away Clean Sheet14.6%

Away Win to Nil13.7%

Home Clean Sheet5.9%

Home Win to Nil5.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.593.8%

Home Over 0.585.2%

Away Over 1.577.1%

Home Over 1.557.1%

Away Over 2.553.4%

Away 3+ Goals53.4%

Home Over 2.530.2%

Home 3+ Goals30.2%

Home Exactly 128.0%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 223.7%

Away Exactly 116.7%

Home Exactly 014.6%

Away Exactly 05.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home94.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home88.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home77.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)74.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away74.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)61.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home61.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)56.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)43.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home43.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)38.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away38.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)25.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)22.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away22.0%

Away to win by 3+22.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.7%

Away to win by 118.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.9%

Away to win by 215.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)12.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home12.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.8%

Home to win by 112.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away11.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.4%

Home to win by 27.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.4%

Home to win by 3+5.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.575.4%

Away & Over 2.550.8%

Away & BTTS43.0%

Home & Over 2.522.3%

Home & BTTS20.5%

Draw & BTTS16.6%

Away & No BTTS13.7%

Draw & Over 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

Away & Under 2.55.9%

Draw & Under 2.55.6%

Home & No BTTS5.1%

BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Home & Under 2.53.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.2%

HT Over 1.563.0%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT Away Win45.8%

HT Both Teams Score41.7%

HT/FT Away/Away37.9%

HT Under 1.537.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw28.8%

HT Home Win25.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.5%

HT/FT Home/Home15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.1%

HT Under 0.511.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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