England · League Cup

Liverpool vs Chelsea

Kick-off 21:00 · Wed, Oct 28

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Liverpool 58.5% Draw 15.4% Chelsea 26.1%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

91%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Liverpool: 15 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Liverpool

W W W W L W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 15:10 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Chelsea

L W W L D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 15:11 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Liverpool 2wins ·1 draws ·Chelsea 2wins

Liverpool 1-1 ChelseaMay 9, 2026

Liverpool 1-2 ChelseaOct 4, 2025

Liverpool 1-3 ChelseaMay 4, 2025

Liverpool 2-1 ChelseaOct 20, 2024

Liverpool 4-1 ChelseaJan 31, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Liverpool win58.5%

Draw15.4%

Chelsea win26.1%

Over 1.5 goals99.0%

Over 2.5 goals95.3%

Over 3.5 goals87.9%

Both teams to score90.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.7%

Over 2.5 Goals

89.2%

Away Team to Score

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.7%

Goal in Both Halves85.7%

Home or Away (12)82.6%

Home or Draw (1X)71.0%

Draw No Bet - Home65.4%

Home Win54.0%

Draw or Away (X2)45.5%

Draw No Bet - Away34.6%

Away Win28.5%

Draw17.0%

Exactly 1 Goal2.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals96.3%

Over 2.5 Goals89.2%

Over 3.5 Goals76.6%

4+ Goals76.6%

Over 4.5 Goals60.1%

Under 5.5 Goals57.4%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 5.5 Goals42.6%

Under 4.5 Goals39.9%

2-4 Goals36.2%

3-4 Goals29.1%

Under 3.5 Goals23.4%

1-3 Goals22.4%

2-3 Goals19.7%

Exactly 3 Goals12.6%

Under 2.5 Goals10.8%

1-2 Goals9.9%

Exactly 2 Goals7.2%

Under 1.5 Goals3.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.7%

Away Team to Score89.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.3%

Home Clean Sheet10.5%

Home Win to Nil10.0%

Away Clean Sheet4.9%

Away Win to Nil4.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.7%

Away Over 0.589.0%

Home Over 1.580.0%

Away Over 1.565.4%

Home Over 2.557.7%

Home 3+ Goals57.7%

Away Over 2.538.8%

Away 3+ Goals38.8%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Away Exactly 123.7%

Home Exactly 222.2%

Home Exactly 114.7%

Away Exactly 010.5%

Home Exactly 04.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away78.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)63.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away63.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)54.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)45.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away45.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)36.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home36.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.4%

Home to win by 3+21.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 117.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.9%

Home to win by 214.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.1%

Away to win by 113.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.3%

Away to win by 28.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.2%

Away to win by 3+7.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.2%

Home & Over 2.550.1%

Home & BTTS44.0%

Away & Over 2.526.1%

Away & BTTS24.2%

Draw & BTTS16.4%

Draw & Over 2.512.9%

Home & No BTTS10.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.9%

Away & No BTTS4.4%

Draw & Under 2.54.0%

Home & Under 2.53.9%

BTTS & Under 2.53.5%

Away & Under 2.52.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.7%

HT Over 1.568.5%

2nd Half More Goals50.1%

HT Both Teams Score47.3%

HT Home Win44.8%

HT/FT Home/Home36.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.5%

HT Away Win27.9%

HT Draw27.3%

Equal Goals Each Half17.4%

HT/FT Away/Away17.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.9%

HT Under 0.59.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.6%

HT/FT Away/Home5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions