England · Premier League

Liverpool vs Fulham

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Liverpool 61.4% Draw 22.2% Fulham 16.3%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 55%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

61%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Liverpool: 9 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Liverpool

W W D D D L

Form 2-3-1 Goals 11:10 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.67

Fulham

L L W L W D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Liverpool 2wins ·2 draws ·Fulham 1wins

Liverpool 2-0 FulhamApr 11, 2026

Liverpool 2-2 FulhamJan 4, 2026

Liverpool 2-3 FulhamApr 6, 2025

Liverpool 2-2 FulhamDec 14, 2024

Liverpool 3-1 FulhamApr 21, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Liverpool win61.4%

Draw22.2%

Fulham win16.3%

Over 1.5 goals83.1%

Over 2.5 goals67.6%

Over 3.5 goals38.3%

Both teams to score55.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

89.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

87.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)83.7%

Home or Away (12)82.6%

Draw No Bet - Home80.4%

Both Halves Over 0.571.6%

Goal in Both Halves71.6%

Home Win66.4%

Draw or Away (X2)33.5%

Draw No Bet - Away19.6%

Draw17.3%

Away Win16.2%

Exactly 1 Goal8.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals89.0%

Under 5.5 Goals82.0%

Over 2.5 Goals72.7%

Under 4.5 Goals67.3%

2-4 Goals56.2%

Over 3.5 Goals52.1%

4+ Goals52.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals47.9%

1-3 Goals45.4%

3-4 Goals40.0%

2-3 Goals36.8%

Over 4.5 Goals32.7%

Under 2.5 Goals27.3%

1-2 Goals24.9%

Exactly 3 Goals20.5%

Over 5.5 Goals18.0%

Exactly 2 Goals16.3%

Under 1.5 Goals11.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.2%

Away Team to Score70.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.1%

Home Clean Sheet29.6%

Home Win to Nil27.3%

Away Clean Sheet7.7%

Away Win to Nil5.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.2%

Home Over 1.572.5%

Away Over 0.570.3%

Home Over 2.547.2%

Home 3+ Goals47.2%

Away Exactly 136.0%

Away Over 1.534.3%

Away Exactly 029.6%

Home Exactly 225.3%

Away Exactly 221.9%

Home Exactly 119.7%

Away Over 2.512.4%

Away 3+ Goals12.4%

Home Exactly 07.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)66.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)45.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home45.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)33.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away33.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)26.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home26.2%

Home to win by 3+26.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.2%

Home to win by 121.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 219.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.0%

Away to win by 110.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.3%

Away to win by 24.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.9%

Away to win by 3+1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.557.7%

Home & Over 2.553.0%

Home & BTTS39.1%

Home & No BTTS27.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.1%

Draw & BTTS15.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.9%

Home & Under 2.513.3%

Away & Over 2.511.7%

Away & BTTS10.8%

Draw & Under 2.59.4%

Draw & Over 2.57.9%

BTTS & Under 2.57.1%

Away & No BTTS5.4%

Away & Under 2.54.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.8%

HT Home Win50.8%

HT Over 1.550.7%

HT Under 1.549.3%

2nd Half More Goals46.9%

HT/FT Home/Home45.0%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Draw31.7%

HT Both Teams Score28.9%

Equal Goals Each Half21.0%

HT Under 0.518.2%

HT Away Win17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.4%

HT/FT Away/Away9.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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