England · Premier League

Liverpool vs Manchester City

Kick-off 16:30 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Liverpool 32.2% Draw 26.7% Manchester City 41.1%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 10.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Manchester City: 12 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.8%

Exact-score model probability

Liverpool

W D W W D D

Form 3-3-0 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Manchester City

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 15:5 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Liverpool 2wins ·1 draws ·Manchester City 2wins

Liverpool 1-2 Manchester CityFeb 8, 2026

Liverpool 0-3 Manchester CityNov 9, 2025

Liverpool 2-0 Manchester CityFeb 23, 2025

Liverpool 2-0 Manchester CityDec 1, 2024

Liverpool 1-1 Manchester CityMar 10, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Liverpool win32.2%

Draw26.7%

Manchester City win41.1%

Over 1.5 goals80.8%

Over 2.5 goals60.7%

Over 3.5 goals34.6%

Both teams to score53.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

84.6%

Away Over 0.5

84.6%

Under 4.5 Goals

83.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)80.6%

Home or Away (12)77.7%

Draw No Bet - Away75.0%

Away Win58.3%

Both Halves Over 0.557.3%

Goal in Both Halves57.3%

Home or Draw (1X)41.7%

Draw No Bet - Home25.0%

Draw22.3%

Home Win19.4%

Exactly 1 Goal16.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.2%

Under 5.5 Goals93.0%

Under 4.5 Goals83.9%

Over 1.5 Goals77.8%

Under 3.5 Goals67.9%

1-3 Goals62.2%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals54.4%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.8%

Under 2.5 Goals45.6%

1-2 Goals39.9%

3-4 Goals38.3%

Over 3.5 Goals32.1%

4+ Goals32.1%

Exactly 2 Goals23.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Under 1.5 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals16.1%

Over 5.5 Goals7.0%

Under 0.5 Goals5.8%

Exactly 0 Goals5.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score84.6%

Home Team to Score62.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.1%

Away Clean Sheet37.5%

Away Win to Nil31.7%

Home Clean Sheet15.3%

Home Win to Nil9.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.584.6%

Home Over 0.562.5%

Away Over 1.555.9%

Home Exactly 037.5%

Home Exactly 136.8%

Away Over 2.528.9%

Away 3+ Goals28.9%

Away Exactly 128.8%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Over 1.525.8%

Home Exactly 218.1%

Away Exactly 015.3%

Home Over 2.57.7%

Home 3+ Goals7.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)83.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home83.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)80.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away80.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)66.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home66.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)58.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)41.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home41.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)34.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away34.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.2%

Away to win by 124.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.9%

Away to win by 217.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)16.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away16.1%

Away to win by 3+16.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.7%

Home to win by 112.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.9%

Home to win by 24.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.8%

Home to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.542.4%

Away & Over 2.537.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.0%

Away & No BTTS31.7%

Away & BTTS26.6%

Away & Under 2.520.9%

Draw & BTTS16.6%

Draw & Under 2.516.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.0%

Home & Over 2.511.0%

BTTS & Under 2.510.6%

Home & BTTS9.8%

Home & No BTTS9.6%

Home & Under 2.58.4%

Draw & Over 2.56.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.4%

HT Under 1.563.2%

2nd Half More Goals44.0%

HT Away Win42.9%

HT Draw39.0%

HT/FT Away/Away37.0%

HT Over 1.536.8%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.527.6%

Equal Goals Each Half24.7%

HT Both Teams Score20.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away18.3%

HT Home Win18.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.3%

HT/FT Home/Home10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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