UEFA Champions League

Liverpool vs Villarreal

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Oct 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Liverpool 45.7% Draw 21.1% Villarreal 33.2%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Liverpool: 13 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

Liverpool

W W L W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Villarreal

D W L W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Liverpool win45.7%

Draw21.1%

Villarreal win33.2%

Over 1.5 goals93.9%

Over 2.5 goals80.9%

Over 3.5 goals63.2%

Both teams to score79.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.8%

Home Team to Score

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.4%

Both Halves Over 0.578.1%

Goal in Both Halves78.1%

Home or Draw (1X)65.9%

Draw No Bet - Home57.7%

Draw or Away (X2)53.5%

Home Win46.4%

Draw No Bet - Away42.3%

Away Win34.0%

Draw19.5%

Exactly 1 Goal5.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.0%

Over 2.5 Goals80.8%

Under 5.5 Goals72.9%

Over 3.5 Goals63.1%

4+ Goals63.1%

Under 4.5 Goals56.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-4 Goals49.1%

Over 4.5 Goals43.9%

Under 3.5 Goals36.9%

3-4 Goals36.9%

1-3 Goals35.5%

2-3 Goals29.9%

Over 5.5 Goals27.1%

Under 2.5 Goals19.2%

1-2 Goals17.8%

Exactly 3 Goals17.7%

Exactly 2 Goals12.2%

Under 1.5 Goals7.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.3%

Away Team to Score86.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.8%

Home Clean Sheet13.4%

Home Win to Nil12.1%

Away Clean Sheet9.6%

Away Win to Nil8.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.3%

Away Over 0.586.5%

Home Over 1.567.9%

Away Over 1.559.5%

Home Over 2.541.5%

Home 3+ Goals41.5%

Away Over 2.532.5%

Away 3+ Goals32.5%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 126.9%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Home Exactly 122.5%

Away Exactly 013.4%

Home Exactly 09.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)53.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away53.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)46.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 118.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.8%

Away to win by 115.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.3%

Home to win by 3+14.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.6%

Home to win by 213.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.0%

Away to win by 210.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.2%

Away to win by 3+8.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.1%

Home & Over 2.539.8%

Home & BTTS34.3%

Away & Over 2.528.8%

Away & BTTS25.7%

Draw & BTTS18.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.0%

Draw & Over 2.512.2%

Home & No BTTS12.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Away & No BTTS8.3%

Draw & Under 2.57.3%

Home & Under 2.56.6%

BTTS & Under 2.56.1%

Away & Under 2.55.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.9%

HT Over 1.558.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Under 1.541.7%

HT Both Teams Score38.8%

HT Home Win38.5%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw31.1%

HT Away Win30.4%

HT/FT Home/Home29.6%

HT/FT Away/Away20.8%

Equal Goals Each Half19.4%

HT Under 0.514.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions