Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

Lommel United vs Charleroi

Kick-off 18:15 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Lommel United 44.0% Draw 30.3% Charleroi 25.7%

Over 2.5 - 49% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

65%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 11.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Lommel United: 14 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.8%

Exact-score model probability

Lommel United

D D W W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 12:6 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

Charleroi

W W D L W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 9:3 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lommel United win44.0%

Draw30.3%

Charleroi win25.7%

Over 1.5 goals68.6%

Over 2.5 goals48.9%

Over 3.5 goals20.4%

Both teams to score52.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

91.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)76.9%

Home or Away (12)75.3%

Draw No Bet - Away69.4%

Both Halves Over 0.553.0%

Goal in Both Halves53.0%

Away Win52.3%

Home or Draw (1X)47.7%

Draw No Bet - Home30.6%

Draw24.7%

Home Win23.1%

Exactly 1 Goal19.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.9%

Over 0.5 Goals92.8%

Under 4.5 Goals87.3%

Over 1.5 Goals73.8%

Under 3.5 Goals73.0%

1-3 Goals65.8%

2-4 Goals61.1%

Under 2.5 Goals51.1%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals48.9%

2-3 Goals46.8%

1-2 Goals43.9%

3-4 Goals36.2%

Over 3.5 Goals27.0%

4+ Goals27.0%

Under 1.5 Goals26.2%

Exactly 2 Goals24.9%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Over 4.5 Goals12.7%

Under 0.5 Goals7.2%

Exactly 0 Goals7.2%

Over 5.5 Goals5.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score80.5%

Home Team to Score63.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)50.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)49.3%

Away Clean Sheet36.9%

Away Win to Nil29.7%

Home Clean Sheet19.5%

Home Win to Nil12.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.580.5%

Home Over 0.563.1%

Away Over 1.548.6%

Home Exactly 036.9%

Home Exactly 136.8%

Away Exactly 131.9%

Home Over 1.526.3%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Over 2.522.5%

Away 3+ Goals22.5%

Away Exactly 019.5%

Home Exactly 218.3%

Home Over 2.58.0%

Home 3+ Goals8.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)76.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away76.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)72.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home72.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)27.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away27.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.3%

Away to win by 124.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)23.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.0%

Away to win by 216.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.8%

Home to win by 114.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.9%

Away to win by 3+11.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.0%

Home to win by 26.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.3%

Home to win by 3+2.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.539.4%

BTTS & Over 2.539.0%

Away & Over 2.530.9%

Away & No BTTS29.7%

Away & BTTS22.5%

Away & Under 2.521.4%

Draw & Under 2.519.0%

Draw & BTTS17.5%

Home & Over 2.512.3%

Home & No BTTS12.3%

BTTS & Under 2.511.7%

Home & Under 2.510.8%

Home & BTTS10.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.9%

Draw & Over 2.55.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.4%

HT Under 1.566.9%

2nd Half More Goals43.1%

HT Draw41.6%

HT Away Win38.3%

HT Over 1.533.1%

HT/FT Away/Away32.2%

1st Half More Goals30.9%

HT Under 0.530.6%

Equal Goals Each Half26.0%

HT Home Win20.1%

HT Both Teams Score18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.2%

HT/FT Home/Home12.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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