France · Ligue 1

Lorient vs Estac Troyes

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Lorient 48.3% Draw 32.3% Estac Troyes 19.4%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lorient: 8 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Lorient 1 wins, 2 draws, Estac Troyes 1 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.4%

Exact-score model probability

Lorient

D L W D L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Estac Troyes

D D L D L L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 4:11 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 4

Lorient 1wins ·2 draws ·Estac Troyes 1wins

Lorient 2-0 Estac TroyesMar 12, 2023

Lorient 2-2 Estac TroyesOct 23, 2022

Lorient 1-1 Estac TroyesMay 21, 2022

Lorient 0-2 Estac TroyesDec 1, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lorient win48.3%

Draw32.3%

Estac Troyes win19.4%

Over 1.5 goals56.7%

Over 2.5 goals87.1%

Over 3.5 goals12.0%

Both teams to score68.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.5%

Over 1.5 Goals

91.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)86.8%

Home or Away (12)84.8%

Draw No Bet - Home84.8%

Both Halves Over 0.575.4%

Goal in Both Halves75.4%

Home Win71.9%

Draw or Away (X2)27.8%

Draw No Bet - Away15.2%

Draw14.9%

Away Win12.9%

Exactly 1 Goal6.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals91.3%

Over 2.5 Goals77.4%

Under 5.5 Goals77.2%

Under 4.5 Goals61.1%

Over 3.5 Goals58.4%

4+ Goals58.4%

2-4 Goals52.4%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals41.6%

1-3 Goals39.7%

Over 4.5 Goals38.9%

3-4 Goals38.5%

2-3 Goals32.9%

Over 5.5 Goals22.8%

Under 2.5 Goals22.6%

1-2 Goals20.7%

Exactly 3 Goals19.0%

Exactly 2 Goals13.9%

Under 1.5 Goals8.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.2%

Away Team to Score69.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.1%

Home Clean Sheet30.0%

Home Win to Nil28.3%

Away Clean Sheet5.5%

Away Win to Nil3.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.2%

Home Over 1.578.3%

Away Over 0.569.7%

Home Over 2.555.2%

Home 3+ Goals55.2%

Away Exactly 136.0%

Away Over 1.533.7%

Away Exactly 030.0%

Home Exactly 223.1%

Away Exactly 221.6%

Home Exactly 115.9%

Away Over 2.512.1%

Away 3+ Goals12.1%

Home Exactly 05.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)67.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away67.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)52.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home52.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)47.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away47.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)32.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home32.7%

Home to win by 3+32.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)27.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away27.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 119.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.5%

Home to win by 219.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.2%

Away to win by 18.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.3%

Away to win by 23.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.4%

Away to win by 3+1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.560.2%

BTTS & Over 2.560.1%

Home & BTTS43.6%

Home & No BTTS28.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.6%

Draw & BTTS13.2%

Home & Under 2.511.7%

Away & Over 2.59.7%

Away & BTTS9.1%

Draw & Over 2.57.5%

Draw & Under 2.57.4%

BTTS & Under 2.55.8%

Away & No BTTS3.8%

Away & Under 2.53.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.2%

HT Home Win55.6%

HT Over 1.555.1%

HT/FT Home/Home50.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.8%

HT Under 1.544.9%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score30.5%

HT Draw29.0%

Equal Goals Each Half20.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.4%

HT Under 0.515.8%

HT Away Win15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.2%

HT/FT Away/Away7.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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