France · Ligue 1

Lorient vs Monaco

Kick-off 16:15 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Lorient 34.0% Draw 26.0% Monaco 40.0%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 87%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

87%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Monaco: 8 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.4%

Exact-score model probability

Lorient

W L D W L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Monaco

D W D W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Lorient 2wins ·2 draws ·Monaco 1wins

Lorient 3-1 MonacoJan 16, 2026

Lorient 3-1 MonacoSep 27, 2025

Lorient 2-2 MonacoMar 17, 2024

Lorient 2-2 MonacoSep 17, 2023

Lorient 1-3 MonacoApr 16, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lorient win34.0%

Draw26.0%

Monaco win40.0%

Over 1.5 goals78.7%

Over 2.5 goals91.8%

Over 3.5 goals32.5%

Both teams to score86.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.584.1%

Goal in Both Halves84.1%

Home or Away (12)81.9%

Draw or Away (X2)68.3%

Draw No Bet - Away61.7%

Away Win50.5%

Home or Draw (1X)49.2%

Draw No Bet - Home38.3%

Home Win31.4%

Draw17.8%

Exactly 1 Goal3.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals95.8%

Over 2.5 Goals87.6%

Over 3.5 Goals73.9%

4+ Goals73.9%

Under 5.5 Goals61.1%

Over 4.5 Goals56.5%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals43.5%

2-4 Goals39.3%

Over 5.5 Goals38.9%

3-4 Goals31.2%

Under 3.5 Goals26.1%

1-3 Goals25.2%

2-3 Goals22.0%

Exactly 3 Goals13.8%

Under 2.5 Goals12.4%

1-2 Goals11.4%

Exactly 2 Goals8.2%

Under 1.5 Goals4.2%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score93.7%

Home Team to Score89.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.3%

Away Clean Sheet10.6%

Away Win to Nil10.0%

Home Clean Sheet6.0%

Home Win to Nil5.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.593.7%

Home Over 0.589.1%

Away Over 1.576.7%

Home Over 1.565.3%

Away Over 2.552.9%

Away 3+ Goals52.9%

Home Over 2.538.7%

Home 3+ Goals38.7%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 123.8%

Away Exactly 223.8%

Away Exactly 117.0%

Home Exactly 010.6%

Away Exactly 06.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home90.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)82.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away82.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)81.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home81.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)68.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away68.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)66.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home66.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)50.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)49.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home49.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)32.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away32.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)31.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)18.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away18.5%

Away to win by 3+18.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.7%

Away to win by 117.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)17.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home17.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.3%

Away to win by 214.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.2%

Home to win by 114.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.1%

Home to win by 29.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.1%

Home to win by 3+8.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.7%

Away & Over 2.546.2%

Away & BTTS40.6%

Home & Over 2.528.4%

Home & BTTS26.0%

Draw & BTTS17.1%

Draw & Over 2.513.1%

Away & No BTTS10.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.0%

Home & No BTTS5.4%

Draw & Under 2.54.7%

Away & Under 2.54.3%

BTTS & Under 2.54.0%

Home & Under 2.53.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.7%

HT Over 1.566.2%

2nd Half More Goals49.7%

HT Both Teams Score45.6%

HT Away Win42.1%

HT Under 1.533.8%

HT/FT Away/Away33.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Home Win29.6%

HT Draw28.3%

HT/FT Home/Home19.3%

Equal Goals Each Half17.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.6%

HT Under 0.510.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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