France · Ligue 1

Lorient vs Toulouse

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Lorient 43.3% Draw 28.6% Toulouse 28.1%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

86%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Lorient 0 wins, 2 draws, Toulouse 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.5%

Exact-score model probability

Lorient

W L D L W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Toulouse

L D L W W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Lorient 0wins ·2 draws ·Toulouse 3wins

Lorient 0-1 ToulouseMar 21, 2026

Lorient 1-1 ToulouseNov 9, 2025

Lorient 1-2 ToulouseApr 28, 2024

Lorient 1-1 ToulouseDec 3, 2023

Lorient 0-1 ToulouseApr 23, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lorient win43.3%

Draw28.6%

Toulouse win28.1%

Over 1.5 goals71.6%

Over 2.5 goals89.5%

Over 3.5 goals23.7%

Both teams to score85.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

92.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

92.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.9%

Both Halves Over 0.576.2%

Goal in Both Halves76.2%

Home or Draw (1X)65.8%

Draw No Bet - Home57.2%

Draw or Away (X2)54.2%

Home Win45.7%

Draw No Bet - Away42.8%

Away Win34.2%

Draw20.0%

Exactly 1 Goal6.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.0%

Over 2.5 Goals78.6%

Under 5.5 Goals75.8%

Over 3.5 Goals59.9%

4+ Goals59.9%

Under 4.5 Goals59.6%

2-4 Goals51.5%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Over 4.5 Goals40.4%

Under 3.5 Goals40.1%

1-3 Goals38.5%

3-4 Goals38.1%

2-3 Goals32.1%

Over 5.5 Goals24.2%

Under 2.5 Goals21.4%

1-2 Goals19.8%

Exactly 3 Goals18.7%

Exactly 2 Goals13.4%

Under 1.5 Goals8.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.3%

Away Team to Score85.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.6%

Home Clean Sheet14.5%

Home Win to Nil12.9%

Away Clean Sheet10.6%

Away Win to Nil9.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.3%

Away Over 0.585.5%

Home Over 1.565.5%

Away Over 1.557.5%

Home Over 2.538.8%

Home 3+ Goals38.8%

Away Over 2.530.5%

Away 3+ Goals30.5%

Away Exactly 128.0%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 123.8%

Away Exactly 014.5%

Home Exactly 010.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)54.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away54.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)45.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 118.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.2%

Away to win by 116.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.5%

Home to win by 213.5%

Home to win by 3+13.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.1%

Away to win by 210.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.9%

Away to win by 3+7.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.7%

Home & Over 2.538.4%

Home & BTTS32.8%

Away & Over 2.528.3%

Away & BTTS25.1%

Draw & BTTS18.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.7%

Home & No BTTS12.9%

Draw & Over 2.511.8%

Away & No BTTS9.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

Draw & Under 2.58.2%

Home & Under 2.57.3%

BTTS & Under 2.56.7%

Away & Under 2.55.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.7%

HT Over 1.556.0%

2nd Half More Goals47.9%

HT Under 1.544.0%

HT Home Win37.8%

HT Both Teams Score36.9%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw31.9%

HT Away Win30.3%

HT/FT Home/Home29.0%

HT/FT Away/Away20.8%

Equal Goals Each Half19.9%

HT Under 0.515.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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