France · Ligue 1

Lyon vs Auxerre

Kick-off 18:00 · Fri, Sep 4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Lyon 61.1% Draw 23.0% Auxerre 15.8%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 94%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.6%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Auxerre: 8 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.6%

Exact-score model probability

Lyon

D L W D W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Auxerre

L L W W W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 12:13 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 5

Lyon 2wins ·2 draws ·Auxerre 1wins

Lyon 3-2 AuxerreApr 25, 2026

Lyon 0-0 AuxerreNov 23, 2025

Lyon 3-1 AuxerreApr 13, 2025

Lyon 2-2 AuxerreOct 27, 2024

Lyon 1-2 AuxerreFeb 17, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lyon win61.1%

Draw23.0%

Auxerre win15.8%

Over 1.5 goals78.4%

Over 2.5 goals97.8%

Over 3.5 goals31.7%

Both teams to score94.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.6%

Away Team to Score

90.9%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.5%

Goal in Both Halves89.5%

Home or Away (12)83.3%

Home or Draw (1X)71.5%

Draw No Bet - Home67.0%

Home Win55.8%

Draw or Away (X2)43.2%

Draw No Bet - Away33.0%

Away Win27.5%

Draw15.7%

Exactly 1 Goal1.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals97.2%

Over 2.5 Goals92.5%

Over 3.5 Goals83.3%

4+ Goals83.3%

Over 4.5 Goals69.6%

Over 5.5 Goals53.3%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Under 5.5 Goals46.7%

Under 4.5 Goals30.4%

2-4 Goals27.6%

3-4 Goals22.9%

Under 3.5 Goals16.7%

1-3 Goals15.5%

2-3 Goals13.9%

Exactly 3 Goals9.2%

Under 2.5 Goals7.5%

1-2 Goals6.3%

Exactly 2 Goals4.7%

Under 1.5 Goals2.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.8%

Away Team to Score90.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)12.1%

Home Clean Sheet8.1%

Home Win to Nil7.9%

Away Clean Sheet3.2%

Away Win to Nil3.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.8%

Away Over 0.590.9%

Home Over 1.584.7%

Away Over 1.570.6%

Home Over 2.565.6%

Home 3+ Goals65.6%

Away Over 2.545.2%

Away 3+ Goals45.2%

Away Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 120.3%

Home Exactly 219.0%

Home Exactly 111.1%

Away Exactly 08.1%

Home Exactly 03.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)85.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away85.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)83.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home83.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)74.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away74.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)55.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)43.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away43.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)39.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home39.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)24.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home24.3%

Home to win by 3+24.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 116.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.8%

Home to win by 214.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.2%

Away to win by 112.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.9%

Away to win by 27.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.4%

Away to win by 3+7.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.585.6%

Home & Over 2.553.4%

Home & BTTS48.0%

Away & Over 2.526.0%

Away & BTTS24.5%

Draw & BTTS15.4%

Draw & Over 2.513.1%

Home & No BTTS7.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Away & No BTTS3.0%

Home & Under 2.52.5%

Draw & Under 2.52.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.3%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.1%

HT Over 1.574.6%

HT Both Teams Score53.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.2%

HT Home Win46.9%

HT/FT Home/Home38.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Away Win27.7%

HT Under 1.525.4%

HT Draw25.3%

HT/FT Away/Away16.9%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.1%

HT Under 0.56.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions