UEFA Champions League

Lyon vs Fenerbahçe

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Aug 26

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Lyon 32.1% Draw 20.7% Fenerbahçe 47.2%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

80%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Fenerbahçe: 7 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Lyon

W D W L L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Fenerbahçe

D L W W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:4 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 1

Lyon 0wins ·1 draws ·Fenerbahçe 0wins

Lyon 1-1 FenerbahçeAug 18, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lyon win32.1%

Draw20.7%

Fenerbahçe win47.2%

Over 1.5 goals94.4%

Over 2.5 goals82.1%

Over 3.5 goals65.0%

Both teams to score79.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

91.1%

Away Over 0.5

91.1%

Home Team to Score

86.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.7%

Both Halves Over 0.579.1%

Goal in Both Halves79.1%

Draw or Away (X2)67.1%

Draw No Bet - Away59.4%

Home or Draw (1X)52.0%

Away Win47.9%

Draw No Bet - Home40.6%

Home Win32.8%

Draw19.2%

Exactly 1 Goal5.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals93.5%

Over 2.5 Goals82.0%

Under 5.5 Goals71.2%

Over 3.5 Goals64.9%

4+ Goals64.9%

Under 4.5 Goals54.2%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals47.7%

Over 4.5 Goals45.8%

3-4 Goals36.2%

Under 3.5 Goals35.1%

1-3 Goals33.8%

Over 5.5 Goals28.8%

2-3 Goals28.7%

Under 2.5 Goals18.0%

Exactly 3 Goals17.1%

1-2 Goals16.7%

Exactly 2 Goals11.5%

Under 1.5 Goals6.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score91.1%

Home Team to Score86.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.0%

Away Clean Sheet13.3%

Away Win to Nil12.1%

Home Clean Sheet8.7%

Home Win to Nil7.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.591.1%

Home Over 0.586.6%

Away Over 1.569.8%

Home Over 1.559.8%

Away Over 2.543.9%

Away 3+ Goals43.9%

Home Over 2.532.8%

Home 3+ Goals32.8%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 126.8%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Exactly 121.3%

Home Exactly 013.3%

Away Exactly 08.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)82.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away82.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)70.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home70.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)67.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away67.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)52.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home52.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)47.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)32.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)29.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away29.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.5%

Away to win by 118.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)17.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home17.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away15.4%

Away to win by 3+15.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.3%

Home to win by 115.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.0%

Away to win by 214.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.6%

Home to win by 29.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.8%

Home to win by 3+7.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.573.3%

Away & Over 2.541.6%

Away & BTTS35.8%

Home & Over 2.528.1%

Home & BTTS25.2%

Draw & BTTS18.0%

Draw & Over 2.512.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.2%

Away & No BTTS12.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Home & No BTTS7.6%

Draw & Under 2.56.9%

Away & Under 2.56.3%

BTTS & Under 2.55.7%

Home & Under 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.5%

HT Over 1.559.5%

2nd Half More Goals48.6%

HT Under 1.540.5%

HT Both Teams Score39.7%

HT Away Win39.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT/FT Away/Away30.8%

HT Draw30.6%

HT Home Win29.8%

HT/FT Home/Home20.0%

Equal Goals Each Half19.1%

HT Under 0.513.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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