France · Ligue 1

Lyon vs Nice

Kick-off 19:45 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Lyon 59.4% Draw 23.3% Nice 17.3%

Over 2.5 - 65% BTTS - 50%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 12.8%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Head-to-head record: Lyon 4 wins, 0 draws, Nice 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.8%

Exact-score model probability

Lyon

L D W D L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Nice

W W L D L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 5:7 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Lyon 4wins ·0 draws ·Nice 1wins

Lyon 2-0 NiceFeb 15, 2026

Lyon 2-3 NiceOct 18, 2025

Lyon 2-0 NiceMar 9, 2025

Lyon 4-1 NiceDec 1, 2024

Lyon 1-0 NiceFeb 16, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lyon win59.4%

Draw23.3%

Nice win17.3%

Over 1.5 goals76.9%

Over 2.5 goals65.0%

Over 3.5 goals30.1%

Both teams to score50.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.1%

Home Team to Score

90.2%

Home Over 0.5

90.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.0%

Draw No Bet - Home88.0%

Home or Away (12)83.1%

Home Win73.2%

Both Halves Over 0.560.7%

Goal in Both Halves60.7%

Draw or Away (X2)26.7%

Draw16.8%

Exactly 1 Goal14.4%

Draw No Bet - Away12.0%

Away Win9.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.2%

Under 5.5 Goals91.1%

Over 1.5 Goals80.8%

Under 4.5 Goals80.7%

Under 3.5 Goals63.6%

2-4 Goals61.5%

Over 2.5 Goals58.8%

1-3 Goals58.8%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals44.4%

Under 2.5 Goals41.2%

3-4 Goals39.5%

Over 3.5 Goals36.4%

4+ Goals36.4%

1-2 Goals36.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.0%

Over 4.5 Goals19.3%

Under 1.5 Goals19.2%

Over 5.5 Goals8.9%

Under 0.5 Goals4.8%

Exactly 0 Goals4.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)53.4%

Away Team to Score51.6%

Home Clean Sheet48.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)46.6%

Home Win to Nil43.6%

Away Clean Sheet9.8%

Away Win to Nil5.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.2%

Home Over 1.567.4%

Away Over 0.551.6%

Away Exactly 048.3%

Home Over 2.541.0%

Home 3+ Goals41.0%

Away Exactly 135.1%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Home Exactly 122.7%

Away Over 1.516.5%

Away Exactly 212.8%

Home Exactly 09.8%

Away Over 2.53.7%

Away 3+ Goals3.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)71.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away71.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)50.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away50.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)49.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home49.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.2%

Home to win by 3+28.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)26.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away26.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.3%

Home to win by 123.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.7%

Home to win by 221.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 17.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 22.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.549.4%

Home & No BTTS43.6%

BTTS & Over 2.538.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.2%

Home & BTTS29.6%

Home & Under 2.523.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.2%

Draw & Under 2.512.7%

Draw & BTTS12.1%

BTTS & Under 2.58.0%

Away & Over 2.55.3%

Away & No BTTS5.1%

Away & BTTS4.9%

Away & Under 2.54.7%

Draw & Over 2.54.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.7%

HT Under 1.560.1%

HT Home Win53.8%

HT/FT Home/Home49.8%

2nd Half More Goals44.8%

HT Over 1.539.9%

HT Draw34.8%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.525.3%

Equal Goals Each Half23.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.5%

HT Both Teams Score18.1%

HT Away Win11.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.3%

HT/FT Away/Away5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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