France · Ligue 1

Lyon vs Rennes

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Sep 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Lyon 50.2% Draw 23.9% Rennes 25.9%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

91%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Rennes: 9 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.1%

Exact-score model probability

Lyon

D W D L W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Rennes

W W W D L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:9 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Lyon 2wins ·0 draws ·Rennes 3wins

Lyon 4-2 RennesMay 3, 2026

Lyon 1-3 RennesSep 14, 2025

Lyon 4-1 RennesApr 26, 2025

Lyon 0-3 RennesAug 18, 2024

Lyon 2-3 RennesJan 26, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lyon win50.2%

Draw23.9%

Rennes win25.9%

Over 1.5 goals83.3%

Over 2.5 goals94.0%

Over 3.5 goals39.3%

Both teams to score90.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.0%

Over 2.5 Goals

89.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

87.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.1%

Goal in Both Halves86.1%

Home or Away (12)81.9%

Home or Draw (1X)60.2%

Draw or Away (X2)57.1%

Draw No Bet - Home51.9%

Draw No Bet - Away48.1%

Home Win42.5%

Away Win39.4%

Draw17.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.2%

Over 1.5 Goals96.6%

Over 2.5 Goals89.8%

Over 3.5 Goals77.6%

4+ Goals77.6%

Over 4.5 Goals61.4%

Under 5.5 Goals56.0%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 5.5 Goals44.0%

Under 4.5 Goals38.6%

2-4 Goals35.2%

3-4 Goals28.4%

Under 3.5 Goals22.4%

1-3 Goals21.5%

2-3 Goals19.0%

Exactly 3 Goals12.2%

Under 2.5 Goals10.2%

1-2 Goals9.4%

Exactly 2 Goals6.8%

Under 1.5 Goals3.4%

Under 0.5 Goals0.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.1%

Away Team to Score92.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)86.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)13.7%

Home Clean Sheet7.2%

Home Win to Nil6.8%

Away Clean Sheet6.6%

Away Win to Nil6.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.1%

Away Over 0.592.4%

Home Over 1.575.1%

Away Over 1.573.4%

Home Over 2.550.8%

Home 3+ Goals50.8%

Away Over 2.548.5%

Away 3+ Goals48.5%

Away Exactly 224.9%

Home Exactly 224.3%

Away Exactly 119.0%

Home Exactly 117.9%

Away Exactly 07.2%

Home Exactly 06.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)75.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home75.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)60.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home60.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)57.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away57.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)39.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)23.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away23.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 116.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.7%

Away to win by 115.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.1%

Home to win by 3+14.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away12.4%

Away to win by 3+12.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.2%

Home to win by 212.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.3%

Away to win by 211.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.7%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.582.9%

Home & Over 2.539.5%

Away & Over 2.536.5%

Home & BTTS35.8%

Away & BTTS33.3%

Draw & BTTS17.2%

Draw & Over 2.513.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.9%

Home & No BTTS6.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.5%

Away & No BTTS6.1%

Draw & Under 2.53.9%

BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Home & Under 2.53.1%

Away & Under 2.52.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.0%

HT Over 1.569.2%

2nd Half More Goals50.3%

HT Both Teams Score48.9%

HT Home Win37.2%

HT Away Win35.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.8%

HT Draw27.6%

HT/FT Home/Home27.4%

HT/FT Away/Away25.1%

Equal Goals Each Half17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.1%

HT Under 0.59.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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