UEFA Champions League

Lyon vs Sparta Praha

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Aug 11

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

67% confidence

Lyon 18.4% Draw 14.9% Sparta Praha 66.7%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 44%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.8%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

44%

Market does not fully agree

Lyon

L L L W W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 11:13 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2.17

Sparta Praha

Form 1-0-0 Goals 2:1 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Lyon 0wins ·0 draws ·Sparta Praha 1wins

Lyon 1-2 Sparta PrahaAug 4, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lyon win18.4%

Draw14.9%

Sparta Praha win66.7%

Over 1.5 goals97.9%

Over 2.5 goals91.8%

Over 3.5 goals81.0%

Both teams to score84.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

92.0%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.9%

Goal in Both Halves87.9%

Home or Away (12)84.7%

Draw or Away (X2)80.3%

Draw No Bet - Away78.1%

Away Win66.2%

Home or Draw (1X)32.6%

Draw No Bet - Home21.9%

Home Win18.6%

Draw14.1%

Exactly 1 Goal2.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals96.4%

Over 2.5 Goals90.7%

Over 3.5 Goals80.0%

4+ Goals80.0%

Over 4.5 Goals65.0%

Under 5.5 Goals52.0%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Over 5.5 Goals48.0%

Under 4.5 Goals35.0%

2-4 Goals31.5%

3-4 Goals25.8%

Under 3.5 Goals20.0%

1-3 Goals18.4%

2-3 Goals16.4%

Exactly 3 Goals10.7%

Under 2.5 Goals9.3%

1-2 Goals7.7%

Exactly 2 Goals5.7%

Under 1.5 Goals3.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score85.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.6%

Away Clean Sheet13.1%

Away Win to Nil12.7%

Home Clean Sheet2.7%

Home Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Away Over 1.586.2%

Home Over 0.585.7%

Away Over 2.568.5%

Away 3+ Goals68.5%

Home Over 1.559.3%

Home Over 2.532.6%

Home 3+ Goals32.6%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 126.4%

Away Exactly 217.7%

Home Exactly 013.1%

Away Exactly 19.8%

Away Exactly 02.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away89.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)89.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home89.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)80.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away80.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)79.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home79.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)66.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)66.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home66.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)49.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home49.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)49.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away49.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)32.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)32.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home32.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away32.6%

Away to win by 3+32.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away19.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.9%

Away to win by 116.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.7%

Away to win by 216.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away9.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.5%

Home to win by 19.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw9.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.3%

Home to win by 25.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away4.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.8%

Home to win by 3+3.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.580.7%

Away & Over 2.562.5%

Away & BTTS53.5%

Home & Over 2.517.1%

Home & BTTS16.2%

Draw & BTTS13.7%

Away & No BTTS12.7%

Draw & Over 2.511.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.5%

Away & Under 2.53.6%

Draw & Under 2.53.0%

BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Home & No BTTS2.4%

Home & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.0%

HT Over 1.571.9%

HT Away Win54.0%

2nd Half More Goals50.7%

HT Both Teams Score47.9%

HT/FT Away/Away47.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.528.1%

HT Draw24.8%

HT Home Win21.1%

Equal Goals Each Half16.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.3%

HT/FT Home/Home11.0%

HT Under 0.58.0%

HT/FT Home/Away5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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