UEFA Europa Conference League

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano

Kick-off 17:00 · Thu, Aug 27

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Maccabi Tel Aviv 22.9% Draw 18.4% FC Lugano 58.7%

Over 2.5 - 85% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 6.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to FC Lugano: 9 points versus 13 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.40 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.8%

Exact-score model probability

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L W L W W

Form 3-0-2 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.2

FC Lugano

W D W W W

Form 4-1-0 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2.4 Conceded/game 0.8

Head to head · last 1

Maccabi Tel Aviv 0wins ·0 draws ·FC Lugano 1wins

Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-2 FC LuganoAug 20, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Maccabi Tel Aviv win22.9%

Draw18.4%

FC Lugano win58.7%

Over 1.5 goals95.5%

Over 2.5 goals84.9%

Over 3.5 goals69.3%

Both teams to score80.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

88.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

88.3%

HT Over 0.5

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.6%

Both Halves Over 0.581.5%

Goal in Both Halves81.5%

Draw or Away (X2)76.3%

Draw No Bet - Away71.6%

Away Win59.2%

Home or Draw (1X)40.5%

Draw No Bet - Home28.4%

Home Win23.4%

Draw17.1%

Exactly 1 Goal4.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals84.7%

Over 3.5 Goals69.0%

4+ Goals69.0%

Under 5.5 Goals66.8%

Over 4.5 Goals50.6%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals49.4%

2-4 Goals44.0%

3-4 Goals34.1%

Over 5.5 Goals33.2%

Under 3.5 Goals31.0%

1-3 Goals29.8%

2-3 Goals25.6%

Exactly 3 Goals15.6%

Under 2.5 Goals15.3%

1-2 Goals14.1%

Exactly 2 Goals9.9%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.1%

Home Team to Score83.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.9%

Away Clean Sheet15.8%

Away Win to Nil14.9%

Home Clean Sheet5.6%

Home Win to Nil4.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.1%

Home Over 0.583.9%

Away Over 1.577.9%

Home Over 1.554.7%

Away Over 2.554.6%

Away 3+ Goals54.6%

Home Exactly 129.1%

Home Over 2.527.9%

Home 3+ Goals27.9%

Home Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 223.3%

Away Exactly 116.2%

Home Exactly 015.8%

Away Exactly 05.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home94.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home87.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)76.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away76.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)75.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home75.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)59.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home59.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)59.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)40.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home40.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)40.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away40.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away23.8%

Away to win by 3+23.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)23.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.9%

Away to win by 118.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.5%

Away to win by 216.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away12.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.1%

Home to win by 112.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home11.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.7%

Home to win by 26.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away5.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.6%

Home to win by 3+4.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.4%

Away & Over 2.552.9%

Away & BTTS44.2%

Home & Over 2.520.3%

Home & BTTS18.7%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

Away & No BTTS14.9%

Draw & Over 2.511.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.3%

Away & Under 2.56.3%

Draw & Under 2.55.6%

Home & No BTTS4.7%

BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Home & Under 2.53.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.0%

HT Over 1.562.7%

2nd Half More Goals49.1%

HT Away Win47.5%

HT Both Teams Score40.9%

HT/FT Away/Away40.0%

HT Under 1.537.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw28.7%

HT Home Win23.8%

Equal Goals Each Half18.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.5%

HT/FT Home/Home13.9%

HT Under 0.512.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.9%

HT/FT Home/Away5.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners75.2%

Away Most Corners74.2%

Away Over 4.5 Corners71.5%

Under 10.5 Corners64.5%

Over 8.5 Corners60.8%

Under 9.5 Corners52.2%

Over 9.5 Corners47.8%

Under 8.5 Corners39.2%

Over 10.5 Corners35.5%

Home Over 4.5 Corners27.5%

Over 11.5 Corners24.8%

Home Most Corners16.2%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards87.9%

Under 4.5 Cards75.6%

Over 2.5 Cards64.7%

Under 3.5 Cards57.3%

Over 3.5 Cards42.7%

Under 2.5 Cards35.3%

Over 4.5 Cards24.4%

Over 0.5 Red Cards13.3%

Over 5.5 Cards12.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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