Spain · La Liga

Malaga vs Real Sociedad

Kick-off 17:30 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

36% confidence

Malaga 36.2% Draw 28.6% Real Sociedad 35.2%

Over 2.5 - 43% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Real Sociedad: 4 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Malaga

D D L D D L

Form 0-4-2 Goals 3:9 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Real Sociedad

W W L W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:10 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Malaga win36.2%

Draw28.6%

Real Sociedad win35.2%

Over 1.5 goals69.4%

Over 2.5 goals42.8%

Over 3.5 goals21.9%

Both teams to score69.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

88.4%

Away Over 0.5

88.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.3%

Draw or Away (X2)73.5%

Both Halves Over 0.569.9%

Goal in Both Halves69.9%

Draw No Bet - Away66.6%

Away Win52.8%

Home or Draw (1X)47.2%

Draw No Bet - Home33.4%

Home Win26.5%

Draw20.7%

Exactly 1 Goal9.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals87.9%

Under 5.5 Goals83.7%

Over 2.5 Goals70.6%

Under 4.5 Goals69.6%

2-4 Goals57.6%

Under 3.5 Goals50.4%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals49.6%

4+ Goals49.6%

1-3 Goals47.8%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.3%

Over 4.5 Goals30.4%

Under 2.5 Goals29.4%

1-2 Goals26.7%

Exactly 3 Goals21.0%

Exactly 2 Goals17.3%

Over 5.5 Goals16.3%

Under 1.5 Goals12.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals2.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score88.4%

Home Team to Score77.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.4%

Away Clean Sheet22.4%

Away Win to Nil19.8%

Home Clean Sheet11.5%

Home Win to Nil8.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.588.4%

Home Over 0.577.5%

Away Over 1.563.5%

Home Over 1.544.0%

Away Over 2.536.6%

Away 3+ Goals36.6%

Home Exactly 133.5%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 225.0%

Away Exactly 124.9%

Home Exactly 022.4%

Home Over 2.519.0%

Home 3+ Goals19.0%

Away Exactly 011.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)73.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away73.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)68.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home68.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)31.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away31.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.0%

Away to win by 121.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)16.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away16.0%

Away to win by 3+16.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.8%

Away to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 114.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home12.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.6%

Home to win by 27.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.4%

Home to win by 3+4.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.560.2%

Away & Over 2.541.2%

Away & BTTS33.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.0%

Away & No BTTS19.8%

Home & Over 2.519.7%

Draw & BTTS18.1%

Home & BTTS17.6%

Away & Under 2.511.6%

Draw & Under 2.510.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.4%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

Home & No BTTS8.9%

BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Home & Under 2.56.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.7%

HT Under 1.551.1%

HT Over 1.548.9%

2nd Half More Goals46.6%

HT Away Win41.4%

HT Draw34.2%

HT/FT Away/Away33.8%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score30.4%

HT Home Win24.5%

Equal Goals Each Half21.4%

HT Under 0.519.3%

HT/FT Home/Home15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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