England · Premier League

Manchester City vs Bournemouth

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

67% confidence

Manchester City 67.4% Draw 20.5% Bournemouth 12.1%

Over 2.5 - 49% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 10.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Bournemouth: 11 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.4%

Exact-score model probability

Manchester City

L D W W W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 12:6 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

Bournemouth

D D W W D W

Form 3-3-0 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Manchester City 3wins ·1 draws ·Bournemouth 1wins

Manchester City 1-1 BournemouthMay 19, 2026

Manchester City 3-1 BournemouthNov 2, 2025

Manchester City 3-1 BournemouthMay 20, 2025

Manchester City 1-2 BournemouthNov 2, 2024

Manchester City 1-0 BournemouthFeb 24, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Manchester City win67.4%

Draw20.5%

Bournemouth win12.1%

Over 1.5 goals81.7%

Over 2.5 goals48.6%

Over 3.5 goals36.3%

Both teams to score52.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

85.5%

Home Over 0.5

85.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

82.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)81.1%

Home or Away (12)78.2%

Draw No Bet - Home75.9%

Home Win59.3%

Both Halves Over 0.558.6%

Goal in Both Halves58.6%

Draw or Away (X2)40.6%

Draw No Bet - Away24.1%

Draw21.8%

Away Win18.9%

Exactly 1 Goal15.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.6%

Under 5.5 Goals92.3%

Under 4.5 Goals82.8%

Over 1.5 Goals78.9%

Under 3.5 Goals66.4%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals61.0%

Over 2.5 Goals56.0%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.3%

Under 2.5 Goals44.0%

3-4 Goals38.8%

1-2 Goals38.6%

Over 3.5 Goals33.6%

4+ Goals33.6%

Exactly 2 Goals22.9%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals21.1%

Over 4.5 Goals17.2%

Over 5.5 Goals7.7%

Under 0.5 Goals5.4%

Exactly 0 Goals5.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.5%

Away Team to Score62.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)53.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)46.2%

Home Clean Sheet37.1%

Home Win to Nil31.7%

Away Clean Sheet14.4%

Away Win to Nil9.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.5%

Away Over 0.562.9%

Home Over 1.557.6%

Away Exactly 037.1%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Home Over 2.530.6%

Home 3+ Goals30.6%

Home Exactly 127.9%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Over 1.526.1%

Away Exactly 218.2%

Home Exactly 014.4%

Away Over 2.57.9%

Away 3+ Goals7.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)64.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away64.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)59.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)40.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away40.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)35.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home35.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.1%

Home to win by 124.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 218.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.1%

Home to win by 3+17.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.3%

Away to win by 112.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.8%

Away to win by 24.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.8%

Away to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.543.5%

Home & Over 2.539.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.7%

Home & No BTTS31.7%

Home & BTTS27.6%

Home & Under 2.520.4%

Draw & BTTS16.4%

Draw & Under 2.515.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.5%

Away & Over 2.510.9%

BTTS & Under 2.510.3%

Away & BTTS9.8%

Away & No BTTS9.1%

Away & Under 2.57.9%

Draw & Over 2.56.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.2%

HT Under 1.562.1%

2nd Half More Goals44.3%

HT Home Win43.8%

HT Draw38.3%

HT/FT Home/Home38.0%

HT Over 1.537.9%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT Under 0.526.8%

Equal Goals Each Half24.4%

HT Both Teams Score20.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.3%

HT Away Win18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.8%

HT/FT Away/Away10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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