England · League Cup

Manchester City vs Brighton

Kick-off 20:30 · Wed, Oct 28

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Manchester City 46.3% Draw 15.4% Brighton 38.3%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 95%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

94%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.3%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Brighton: 12 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.3%

Exact-score model probability

Manchester City

L W W L W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 19:12 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 2

Brighton

L W W W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 16:3 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 0.5

Head to head · last 5

Manchester City 1wins ·2 draws ·Brighton 2wins

Manchester City 1-1 BrightonJan 7, 2026

Manchester City 1-2 BrightonAug 31, 2025

Manchester City 2-2 BrightonMar 15, 2025

Manchester City 1-2 BrightonNov 9, 2024

Manchester City 4-0 BrightonApr 25, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Manchester City win46.3%

Draw15.4%

Brighton win38.3%

Over 1.5 goals99.6%

Over 2.5 goals97.9%

Over 3.5 goals93.9%

Both teams to score95.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.0%

Both Halves Over 0.5

89.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.7%

Goal in Both Halves89.7%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Home or Draw (1X)63.6%

Draw No Bet - Home56.9%

Draw or Away (X2)52.2%

Home Win47.0%

Draw No Bet - Away43.1%

Away Win35.6%

Draw16.5%

Exactly 1 Goal1.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals97.4%

Over 2.5 Goals92.9%

Over 3.5 Goals83.9%

4+ Goals83.9%

Over 4.5 Goals70.4%

Over 5.5 Goals54.2%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 5.5 Goals45.8%

Under 4.5 Goals29.6%

2-4 Goals27.1%

3-4 Goals22.5%

Under 3.5 Goals16.1%

1-3 Goals15.1%

2-3 Goals13.6%

Exactly 3 Goals9.0%

Under 2.5 Goals7.1%

1-2 Goals6.1%

Exactly 2 Goals4.5%

Under 1.5 Goals2.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score93.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)89.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)10.7%

Home Clean Sheet6.0%

Home Win to Nil5.8%

Away Clean Sheet4.2%

Away Win to Nil3.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Away Over 0.593.2%

Home Over 1.581.8%

Away Over 1.576.3%

Home Over 2.560.7%

Home 3+ Goals60.7%

Away Over 2.552.6%

Away 3+ Goals52.6%

Away Exactly 223.7%

Home Exactly 221.0%

Away Exactly 116.9%

Home Exactly 113.3%

Away Exactly 06.0%

Home Exactly 04.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home77.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)68.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away68.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)63.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home63.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)52.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away52.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)47.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)35.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)21.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away21.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.0%

Home to win by 3+18.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 116.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.2%

Away to win by 114.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.0%

Home to win by 213.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.3%

Away to win by 3+11.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.1%

Away to win by 210.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.7%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.587.0%

Home & Over 2.545.0%

Home & BTTS41.3%

Away & Over 2.533.9%

Away & BTTS31.7%

Draw & BTTS16.3%

Draw & Over 2.514.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.9%

Home & No BTTS5.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.0%

Away & No BTTS3.9%

Draw & Under 2.52.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.3%

Home & Under 2.52.1%

Away & Under 2.51.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.2%

HT Over 1.574.9%

HT Both Teams Score54.5%

2nd Half More Goals51.3%

HT Home Win40.9%

HT Away Win33.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Home/Home31.2%

HT Draw25.8%

HT Under 1.525.1%

HT/FT Away/Away22.7%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.8%

HT Under 0.56.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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