England · Premier League

Manchester United vs Aston Villa

Full time · 4:4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Manchester United 44.6% Draw 26.5% Aston Villa 28.9%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 88%

✓ Pick was correct (4:4)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

88%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Aston Villa: 4 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Manchester United

W L L L D L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:14 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.33

Aston Villa

L D W W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:6 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Manchester United 3wins ·1 draws ·Aston Villa 1wins

Manchester United 3-1 Aston VillaMar 15, 2026

Manchester United 1-2 Aston VillaDec 21, 2025

Manchester United 2-0 Aston VillaMay 25, 2025

Manchester United 0-0 Aston VillaOct 6, 2024

Manchester United 2-1 Aston VillaFeb 11, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Manchester United win44.6%

Draw26.5%

Aston Villa win28.9%

Over 1.5 goals79.1%

Over 2.5 goals91.8%

Over 3.5 goals32.4%

Both teams to score88.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.4%

Home Over 0.5

90.4%

Away Team to Score

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.8%

Both Halves Over 0.580.7%

Goal in Both Halves80.7%

Home or Draw (1X)60.9%

Draw or Away (X2)58.0%

Draw No Bet - Home51.8%

Draw No Bet - Away48.2%

Home Win41.8%

Away Win39.0%

Draw19.1%

Exactly 1 Goal4.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals94.4%

Over 2.5 Goals84.0%

Under 5.5 Goals68.1%

Over 3.5 Goals67.9%

4+ Goals67.9%

Under 4.5 Goals50.8%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals49.2%

2-4 Goals45.2%

3-4 Goals34.8%

Under 3.5 Goals32.1%

Over 5.5 Goals31.9%

1-3 Goals31.0%

2-3 Goals26.5%

Exactly 3 Goals16.1%

Under 2.5 Goals16.0%

1-2 Goals14.9%

Exactly 2 Goals10.4%

Under 1.5 Goals5.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.4%

Away Team to Score89.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.9%

Home Clean Sheet10.2%

Away Clean Sheet9.5%

Home Win to Nil9.3%

Away Win to Nil8.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.4%

Away Over 0.589.6%

Home Over 1.568.1%

Away Over 1.566.3%

Home Over 2.541.8%

Home 3+ Goals41.8%

Away Over 2.539.7%

Away 3+ Goals39.7%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Away Exactly 123.3%

Home Exactly 122.3%

Away Exactly 010.2%

Home Exactly 09.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)77.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home77.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)75.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away75.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)60.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home60.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)58.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away58.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)41.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)39.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)24.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home24.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)22.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away22.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 117.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.6%

Away to win by 116.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.4%

Home to win by 3+12.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.2%

Home to win by 212.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.4%

Away to win by 211.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.9%

Away to win by 3+10.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.575.9%

Home & Over 2.536.8%

Away & Over 2.534.2%

Home & BTTS32.5%

Away & BTTS30.5%

Draw & BTTS18.1%

Draw & Over 2.512.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.7%

Home & No BTTS9.3%

Away & No BTTS8.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.1%

Draw & Under 2.56.2%

BTTS & Under 2.55.2%

Home & Under 2.55.0%

Away & Under 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.6%

HT Over 1.561.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.9%

HT Both Teams Score41.9%

HT Under 1.538.3%

HT Home Win35.9%

HT Away Win34.0%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.1%

HT/FT Home/Home26.4%

HT/FT Away/Away24.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.7%

HT Under 0.512.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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