England · League Cup

Manchester United vs Brighton

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Sep 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

70% confidence

Manchester United 69.9% Draw 12.8% Brighton 17.3%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 90%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

90%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Manchester United: 10 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.8%

Exact-score model probability

Manchester United

L W D W L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 14:7 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Brighton

W D L W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Manchester United 3wins ·0 draws ·Brighton 2wins

Manchester United 3-0 BrightonMay 24, 2026

Manchester United 4-2 BrightonOct 25, 2025

Manchester United 1-3 BrightonJan 19, 2025

Manchester United 1-2 BrightonAug 24, 2024

Manchester United 2-0 BrightonMay 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Manchester United win69.9%

Draw12.8%

Brighton win17.3%

Over 1.5 goals99.2%

Over 2.5 goals96.3%

Over 3.5 goals90.0%

Both teams to score89.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.1%

Goal in Both Halves88.1%

Home or Away (12)84.2%

Home or Draw (1X)77.9%

Draw No Bet - Home75.0%

Home Win63.2%

Draw or Away (X2)35.8%

Draw No Bet - Away25.0%

Away Win21.0%

Draw14.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals96.6%

Over 2.5 Goals91.1%

Over 3.5 Goals80.6%

4+ Goals80.6%

Over 4.5 Goals65.7%

Under 5.5 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Over 5.5 Goals48.8%

Under 4.5 Goals34.3%

2-4 Goals30.9%

3-4 Goals25.4%

Under 3.5 Goals19.4%

1-3 Goals18.0%

2-3 Goals16.1%

Exactly 3 Goals10.5%

Under 2.5 Goals8.9%

1-2 Goals7.5%

Exactly 2 Goals5.6%

Under 1.5 Goals3.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score87.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.3%

Home Clean Sheet11.6%

Home Win to Nil11.3%

Away Clean Sheet3.0%

Away Win to Nil2.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Away Over 0.587.3%

Home Over 1.585.6%

Home Over 2.567.3%

Home 3+ Goals67.3%

Away Over 1.562.4%

Away Over 2.535.8%

Away 3+ Goals35.8%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Away Exactly 124.9%

Home Exactly 218.3%

Away Exactly 011.6%

Home Exactly 110.4%

Home Exactly 03.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away81.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)69.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away69.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)63.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)52.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away52.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)46.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home46.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)35.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away35.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)29.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home29.9%

Home to win by 3+29.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 117.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.4%

Away to win by 110.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.0%

Away to win by 26.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.6%

Away to win by 3+4.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.582.1%

Home & Over 2.559.8%

Home & BTTS51.9%

Away & Over 2.519.5%

Away & BTTS18.4%

Draw & BTTS14.4%

Draw & Over 2.511.8%

Home & No BTTS11.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Home & Under 2.53.4%

Draw & Under 2.53.0%

Away & No BTTS2.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.2%

HT Over 1.572.3%

HT Home Win51.8%

2nd Half More Goals50.8%

HT Both Teams Score49.2%

HT/FT Home/Home44.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.7%

HT Draw25.2%

HT Away Win23.0%

Equal Goals Each Half16.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.8%

HT/FT Away/Away12.6%

HT Under 0.57.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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