England · Premier League

Manchester United vs Manchester City

Kick-off 16:30 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Manchester United 25.8% Draw 25.6% Manchester City 48.6%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 90%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

90%

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.66 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Manchester United 2 wins, 1 draws, Manchester City 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

Manchester United

W D W L W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 17:8 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Manchester City

W W W W L D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Manchester United 2wins ·1 draws ·Manchester City 2wins

Manchester United 2-0 Manchester CityJan 17, 2026

Manchester United 0-3 Manchester CitySep 14, 2025

Manchester United 0-0 Manchester CityApr 6, 2025

Manchester United 2-1 Manchester CityDec 15, 2024

Manchester United 1-3 Manchester CityMar 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Manchester United win25.8%

Draw25.6%

Manchester City win48.6%

Over 1.5 goals81.7%

Over 2.5 goals93.6%

Over 3.5 goals35.9%

Both teams to score90.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

90.6%

Away Over 0.5

90.6%

Home Team to Score

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.581.7%

Goal in Both Halves81.7%

Home or Away (12)81.0%

Draw or Away (X2)59.7%

Home or Draw (1X)59.0%

Draw No Bet - Away50.4%

Draw No Bet - Home49.6%

Away Win40.8%

Home Win40.2%

Draw18.9%

Exactly 1 Goal4.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals94.9%

Over 2.5 Goals85.1%

Over 3.5 Goals69.7%

4+ Goals69.7%

Under 5.5 Goals66.1%

Over 4.5 Goals51.3%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals48.7%

2-4 Goals43.6%

Over 5.5 Goals33.9%

3-4 Goals33.8%

Under 3.5 Goals30.3%

1-3 Goals29.3%

2-3 Goals25.2%

Exactly 3 Goals15.4%

Under 2.5 Goals14.9%

1-2 Goals13.9%

Exactly 2 Goals9.8%

Under 1.5 Goals5.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score90.6%

Home Team to Score90.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.9%

Away Clean Sheet9.4%

Home Clean Sheet9.2%

Away Win to Nil8.5%

Home Win to Nil8.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.590.6%

Home Over 0.590.5%

Away Over 1.568.7%

Home Over 1.568.3%

Away Over 2.542.5%

Away 3+ Goals42.5%

Home Over 2.542.0%

Home 3+ Goals42.0%

Home Exactly 226.2%

Away Exactly 226.2%

Home Exactly 122.2%

Away Exactly 121.9%

Home Exactly 09.4%

Away Exactly 09.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home75.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)59.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away59.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)59.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home59.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)40.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away24.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.8%

Away to win by 116.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 116.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)12.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away12.1%

Away to win by 3+12.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 211.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.8%

Home to win by 3+11.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.7%

Home to win by 211.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.2%

Away & Over 2.536.3%

Home & Over 2.535.7%

Away & BTTS32.3%

Home & BTTS31.8%

Draw & BTTS18.0%

Draw & Over 2.513.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.8%

Away & No BTTS8.5%

Home & No BTTS8.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.9%

Draw & Under 2.55.7%

BTTS & Under 2.54.9%

Home & Under 2.54.5%

Away & Under 2.54.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.2%

HT Over 1.563.0%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT Both Teams Score43.1%

HT Under 1.537.0%

HT Away Win35.4%

HT Home Win35.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw29.6%

HT/FT Away/Away25.8%

HT/FT Home/Home25.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.5%

HT Under 0.511.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away4.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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