Portugal · Primeira Liga

Maritimo vs Casa Pia

Kick-off 15:30 · Sat, Aug 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Maritimo 45.4% Draw 28.5% Casa Pia 26.2%

Over 2.5 - 36% BTTS - 57%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 0.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Casa Pia: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Maritimo 0 wins, 0 draws, Casa Pia 2 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.4%

Exact-score model probability

Maritimo

W L L W L D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Casa Pia

W D D W L L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 5:4 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 2

Maritimo 0wins ·0 draws ·Casa Pia 2wins

Maritimo 0-2 Casa PiaMar 19, 2023

Maritimo 1-2 Casa PiaOct 3, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Maritimo win45.4%

Draw28.5%

Casa Pia win26.2%

Over 1.5 goals62.9%

Over 2.5 goals36.2%

Over 3.5 goals16.9%

Both teams to score57.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

85.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.5%

Home or Draw (1X)66.7%

Both Halves Over 0.558.5%

Goal in Both Halves58.5%

Draw or Away (X2)57.8%

Draw No Bet - Home55.9%

Draw No Bet - Away44.1%

Home Win42.2%

Away Win33.3%

Draw24.5%

Exactly 1 Goal15.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.6%

Under 5.5 Goals92.4%

Under 4.5 Goals82.8%

Over 1.5 Goals78.9%

Under 3.5 Goals66.5%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals61.1%

Over 2.5 Goals55.9%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals45.4%

Under 2.5 Goals44.1%

1-2 Goals38.7%

3-4 Goals38.7%

Over 3.5 Goals33.5%

4+ Goals33.5%

Exactly 2 Goals23.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals21.1%

Over 4.5 Goals17.2%

Over 5.5 Goals7.6%

Under 0.5 Goals5.4%

Exactly 0 Goals5.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score79.0%

Away Team to Score74.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.3%

Home Clean Sheet25.7%

Away Clean Sheet21.0%

Home Win to Nil20.3%

Away Win to Nil15.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.579.0%

Away Over 0.574.3%

Home Over 1.546.2%

Away Over 1.539.4%

Away Exactly 134.9%

Home Exactly 132.8%

Away Exactly 025.7%

Home Exactly 225.6%

Away Exactly 223.7%

Home Exactly 021.0%

Home Over 2.520.7%

Home 3+ Goals20.7%

Away Over 2.515.7%

Away 3+ Goals15.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)78.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away78.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)66.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home66.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)57.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away57.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)33.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)21.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home21.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.1%

Home to win by 121.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.4%

Away to win by 118.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 212.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.6%

Away to win by 29.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.4%

Home to win by 3+8.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.3%

Away to win by 3+5.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.547.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.532.7%

Home & Over 2.527.2%

Home & BTTS21.9%

Away & Over 2.521.0%

Home & No BTTS20.3%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Away & BTTS17.7%

Draw & Under 2.516.8%

Away & No BTTS15.6%

Home & Under 2.515.0%

Away & Under 2.512.3%

BTTS & Under 2.511.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.6%

Draw & Over 2.57.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.1%

HT Under 1.562.2%

2nd Half More Goals44.3%

HT Draw39.7%

HT Over 1.537.8%

HT Home Win32.9%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT Away Win27.4%

HT Under 0.526.9%

HT/FT Home/Home25.4%

Equal Goals Each Half24.4%

HT Both Teams Score23.1%

HT/FT Away/Away19.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Maritimo win0%

Draw50%

Casa Pia win50%

AdviceDouble chance : draw or Casa Pia

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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