Portugal · Primeira Liga

Maritimo vs FC Porto

Kick-off 18:00 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

Maritimo 9.7% Draw 18.1% FC Porto 72.2%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

76%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to FC Porto: 5 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

Maritimo

D L L L D W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 7:12 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2

FC Porto

W W L W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 14:5 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 4

Maritimo 0wins ·1 draws ·FC Porto 3wins

Maritimo 0-2 FC PortoFeb 1, 2023

Maritimo 1-5 FC PortoAug 6, 2022

Maritimo 1-2 FC PortoJan 30, 2022

Maritimo 1-1 FC PortoAug 22, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Maritimo win9.7%

Draw18.1%

FC Porto win72.2%

Over 1.5 goals75.6%

Over 2.5 goals51.3%

Over 3.5 goals29.2%

Both teams to score71.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw or Away (X2)

90.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)90.3%

Draw No Bet - Away89.6%

Home or Away (12)87.3%

Both Halves Over 0.578.4%

Goal in Both Halves78.4%

Away Win78.3%

Home or Draw (1X)21.1%

Draw12.0%

Draw No Bet - Home10.4%

Home Win9.1%

Exactly 1 Goal5.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals92.6%

Over 2.5 Goals80.6%

Under 5.5 Goals72.9%

Over 3.5 Goals63.1%

4+ Goals63.1%

Under 4.5 Goals56.1%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

2-4 Goals48.7%

Over 4.5 Goals43.9%

Under 3.5 Goals36.9%

3-4 Goals36.7%

1-3 Goals35.0%

2-3 Goals29.5%

Over 5.5 Goals27.1%

Under 2.5 Goals19.4%

Exactly 3 Goals17.5%

1-2 Goals17.5%

Exactly 2 Goals12.0%

Under 1.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.6%

Home Team to Score66.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.9%

Away Clean Sheet32.7%

Away Win to Nil31.5%

Home Clean Sheet3.8%

Home Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.6%

Away Over 1.583.2%

Home Over 0.566.6%

Away Over 2.562.9%

Away 3+ Goals62.9%

Home Exactly 136.3%

Home Exactly 032.7%

Home Over 1.530.3%

Away Exactly 220.3%

Home Exactly 220.2%

Away Exactly 112.4%

Home Over 2.510.1%

Home 3+ Goals10.1%

Away Exactly 03.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away90.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home87.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)78.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)75.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home75.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)60.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away60.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)58.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home58.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)41.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away41.1%

Away to win by 3+41.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)38.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home38.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)24.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away24.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)21.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home21.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.5%

Away to win by 219.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.6%

Away to win by 117.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw16.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away12.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw11.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw7.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.0%

Home to win by 16.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.2%

Home to win by 22.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.9%

Home to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.567.5%

BTTS & Over 2.559.5%

Away & BTTS46.8%

Away & No BTTS31.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.2%

Away & Under 2.510.8%

Draw & BTTS10.8%

Home & Over 2.56.9%

Home & BTTS6.5%

Draw & Over 2.56.2%

Draw & Under 2.55.8%

BTTS & Under 2.54.5%

Home & No BTTS2.5%

Home & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.1%

HT Away Win61.4%

HT Over 1.558.7%

HT/FT Away/Away57.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.4%

HT Under 1.541.3%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score30.3%

HT Draw26.2%

Equal Goals Each Half19.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.3%

HT Under 0.513.9%

HT Home Win12.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.7%

HT/FT Home/Home5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away4.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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