Portugal · Primeira Liga

Maritimo vs Santa Clara

Kick-off 19:00 · Sun, Nov 1

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Maritimo 24.6% Draw 25.8% Santa Clara 49.6%

Over 2.5 - 40% BTTS - 51%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Santa Clara: 1 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Maritimo 2 wins, 1 draws, Santa Clara 1 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.1%

Exact-score model probability

Maritimo

L L D L L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 4:16 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2.67

Santa Clara

L W D W W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 9:4 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 4

Maritimo 2wins ·1 draws ·Santa Clara 1wins

Maritimo 3-1 Santa ClaraFeb 25, 2023

Maritimo 1-2 Santa ClaraSep 4, 2022

Maritimo 2-2 Santa ClaraApr 23, 2022

Maritimo 4-1 Santa ClaraDec 11, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Maritimo win24.6%

Draw25.8%

Santa Clara win49.6%

Over 1.5 goals65.9%

Over 2.5 goals40.1%

Over 3.5 goals19.8%

Both teams to score50.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

88.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

88.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.2%

Draw or Away (X2)69.7%

Both Halves Over 0.564.0%

Goal in Both Halves64.0%

Draw No Bet - Away60.8%

Home or Draw (1X)53.0%

Away Win47.0%

Draw No Bet - Home39.2%

Home Win30.3%

Draw22.7%

Exactly 1 Goal12.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.1%

Under 5.5 Goals88.9%

Over 1.5 Goals83.5%

Under 4.5 Goals77.1%

Over 2.5 Goals63.1%

2-4 Goals60.7%

Under 3.5 Goals59.1%

1-3 Goals55.2%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.6%

Over 3.5 Goals40.9%

4+ Goals40.9%

3-4 Goals40.2%

Under 2.5 Goals36.9%

1-2 Goals33.0%

Over 4.5 Goals22.9%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Exactly 2 Goals20.5%

Under 1.5 Goals16.5%

Over 5.5 Goals11.1%

Under 0.5 Goals3.9%

Exactly 0 Goals3.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score83.9%

Home Team to Score76.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.2%

Away Clean Sheet24.0%

Away Win to Nil20.1%

Home Clean Sheet16.1%

Home Win to Nil12.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.583.9%

Home Over 0.576.0%

Away Over 1.554.4%

Home Over 1.541.8%

Home Exactly 134.2%

Away Exactly 129.4%

Away Over 2.527.6%

Away 3+ Goals27.6%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 224.4%

Home Exactly 024.0%

Home Over 2.517.3%

Home 3+ Goals17.3%

Away Exactly 016.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)74.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home74.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away69.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)53.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home53.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)47.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)30.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)25.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away25.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.2%

Away to win by 121.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.6%

Home to win by 116.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.2%

Away to win by 214.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.5%

Away to win by 3+11.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.7%

Home to win by 28.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.9%

Home to win by 3+4.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.553.7%

Away & Over 2.533.5%

Away & BTTS26.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.8%

Home & Over 2.520.8%

Away & No BTTS20.1%

Draw & BTTS18.9%

Home & BTTS18.0%

Draw & Under 2.513.9%

Away & Under 2.513.5%

Home & No BTTS12.3%

BTTS & Under 2.510.1%

Home & Under 2.59.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.4%

Draw & Over 2.58.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.9%

HT Under 1.557.0%

2nd Half More Goals45.4%

HT Over 1.543.0%

HT Draw37.1%

HT Away Win36.8%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT/FT Away/Away29.1%

HT Both Teams Score26.6%

HT Home Win26.2%

HT Under 0.523.1%

Equal Goals Each Half22.9%

HT/FT Home/Home17.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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