France · Ligue 1

Marseille vs Le Havre

Kick-off 17:15 · Sun, Oct 25

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

Marseille 69.3% Draw 19.1% Le Havre 11.6%

Over 2.5 - 84% BTTS - 76%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

84%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Marseille: 6 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Marseille 5 wins, 0 draws, Le Havre 0 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.9%

Exact-score model probability

Marseille

W W L L L L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 10:10 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Le Havre

L L L D L D

Form 0-2-4 Goals 5:10 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Marseille 5wins ·0 draws ·Le Havre 0wins

Marseille 1-0 Le HavreMay 10, 2026

Marseille 6-2 Le HavreOct 18, 2025

Marseille 3-1 Le HavreMay 10, 2025

Marseille 5-1 Le HavreJan 5, 2025

Marseille 2-1 Le HavreMay 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Marseille win69.3%

Draw19.1%

Le Havre win11.6%

Over 1.5 goals80.2%

Over 2.5 goals84.4%

Over 3.5 goals35.0%

Both teams to score75.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

88.8%

Home or Draw (1X)

87.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)87.7%

Draw No Bet - Home86.4%

Home or Away (12)86.1%

Both Halves Over 0.579.5%

Goal in Both Halves79.5%

Home Win74.4%

Draw or Away (X2)25.0%

Draw No Bet - Away13.6%

Draw13.3%

Away Win11.7%

Exactly 1 Goal5.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals93.3%

Over 2.5 Goals82.0%

Under 5.5 Goals70.9%

Over 3.5 Goals65.1%

4+ Goals65.1%

Under 4.5 Goals53.9%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

2-4 Goals47.1%

Over 4.5 Goals46.1%

3-4 Goals35.9%

Under 3.5 Goals34.9%

1-3 Goals33.2%

Over 5.5 Goals29.1%

2-3 Goals28.2%

Under 2.5 Goals18.0%

Exactly 3 Goals16.9%

1-2 Goals16.3%

Exactly 2 Goals11.3%

Under 1.5 Goals6.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.4%

Away Team to Score71.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.0%

Home Clean Sheet27.5%

Home Win to Nil26.4%

Away Clean Sheet4.0%

Away Win to Nil2.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.4%

Home Over 1.582.5%

Away Over 0.571.9%

Home Over 2.561.7%

Home 3+ Goals61.7%

Away Over 1.536.6%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Away Exactly 027.5%

Away Exactly 222.7%

Home Exactly 220.8%

Away Over 2.513.9%

Away 3+ Goals13.9%

Home Exactly 112.9%

Home Exactly 04.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)62.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away62.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)56.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home56.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)43.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away43.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)37.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home37.1%

Home to win by 3+37.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 219.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 118.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 17.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.1%

Away to win by 23.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.4%

Away to win by 3+1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.565.1%

BTTS & Over 2.564.4%

Home & BTTS48.0%

Home & No BTTS26.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.8%

Draw & BTTS12.2%

Away & Over 2.59.4%

Home & Under 2.59.3%

Away & BTTS8.8%

Draw & Over 2.57.6%

Draw & Under 2.55.7%

BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Away & No BTTS2.9%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.8%

HT Over 1.560.0%

HT Home Win58.4%

HT/FT Home/Home53.5%

2nd Half More Goals48.6%

HT Under 1.540.0%

HT Both Teams Score33.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw26.8%

Equal Goals Each Half19.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.8%

HT Away Win14.8%

HT Under 0.513.2%

HT/FT Away/Away6.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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