UEFA Europa League

Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

70% confidence

Marseille 70.4% Draw 20.4% Olympiakos Piraeus 9.2%

Over 2.5 - 54% BTTS - 45%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

84%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 13.6%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.6%

Exact-score model probability

Marseille

W L L L L W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Olympiakos Piraeus

L D

Form 0-1-1 Goals 1:2 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Marseille win70.4%

Draw20.4%

Olympiakos Piraeus win9.2%

Over 1.5 goals78.7%

Over 2.5 goals54.0%

Over 3.5 goals31.7%

Both teams to score44.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

89.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

89.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.6%

Draw No Bet - Home87.4%

Home or Away (12)81.8%

Home Win71.5%

Both Halves Over 0.557.0%

Goal in Both Halves57.0%

Draw or Away (X2)28.5%

Draw18.1%

Exactly 1 Goal16.6%

Draw No Bet - Away12.6%

Away Win10.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.1%

Under 5.5 Goals93.2%

Under 4.5 Goals84.1%

Over 1.5 Goals77.6%

Under 3.5 Goals68.3%

1-3 Goals62.4%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals54.0%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals46.0%

2-3 Goals45.9%

1-2 Goals40.1%

3-4 Goals38.2%

Over 3.5 Goals31.7%

4+ Goals31.7%

Exactly 2 Goals23.5%

Under 1.5 Goals22.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals15.9%

Over 5.5 Goals6.8%

Under 0.5 Goals5.9%

Exactly 0 Goals5.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)56.4%

Home Clean Sheet50.6%

Away Team to Score49.3%

Home Win to Nil44.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)43.6%

Away Clean Sheet11.5%

Away Win to Nil5.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.4%

Home Over 1.563.6%

Away Exactly 050.6%

Away Over 0.549.3%

Home Over 2.536.7%

Home 3+ Goals36.7%

Away Exactly 134.4%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 124.9%

Away Over 1.514.9%

Away Exactly 211.7%

Home Exactly 011.5%

Away Over 2.53.2%

Away 3+ Goals3.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)74.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away74.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)52.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away52.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)47.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home47.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)28.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away28.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)25.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home25.4%

Home to win by 3+25.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.4%

Home to win by 124.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.7%

Home to win by 221.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.7%

Away to win by 17.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 22.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.545.3%

Home & No BTTS44.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.537.4%

BTTS & Over 2.535.1%

Home & BTTS26.7%

Home & Under 2.526.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.9%

Draw & Under 2.514.4%

Draw & BTTS12.3%

BTTS & Under 2.58.6%

Away & No BTTS5.7%

Away & Under 2.55.3%

Away & Over 2.55.0%

Away & BTTS4.7%

Draw & Over 2.53.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.2%

HT Under 1.563.4%

HT Home Win51.8%

HT/FT Home/Home47.9%

2nd Half More Goals44.0%

HT Draw36.8%

HT Over 1.536.6%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.527.8%

Equal Goals Each Half24.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home21.0%

HT Both Teams Score16.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.5%

HT Away Win11.4%

HT/FT Away/Away5.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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