France · Ligue 1

Marseille vs Paris FC

Kick-off 19:45 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Marseille 52.4% Draw 24.9% Paris FC 22.6%

Over 2.5 - 79% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

80%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 6.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Marseille 1 wins, 1 draws, Paris FC 0 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.8%

Exact-score model probability

Marseille

L W W W L D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Paris FC

W D W L W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 10:4 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 2

Marseille 1wins ·1 draws ·Paris FC 0wins

Marseille 2-2 Paris FCJan 31, 2026

Marseille 5-2 Paris FCAug 23, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Marseille win52.4%

Draw24.9%

Paris FC win22.6%

Over 1.5 goals79.7%

Over 2.5 goals78.5%

Over 3.5 goals33.4%

Both teams to score77.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.4%

HT Over 0.5

87.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.6%

Both Halves Over 0.580.7%

Goal in Both Halves80.7%

Home or Draw (1X)71.8%

Draw No Bet - Home65.7%

Home Win53.6%

Draw or Away (X2)46.2%

Draw No Bet - Away34.3%

Away Win28.0%

Draw18.2%

Exactly 1 Goal4.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.3%

Over 2.5 Goals83.9%

Under 5.5 Goals68.3%

Over 3.5 Goals67.7%

4+ Goals67.7%

Under 4.5 Goals51.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals49.0%

2-4 Goals45.3%

3-4 Goals34.8%

Under 3.5 Goals32.3%

Over 5.5 Goals31.7%

1-3 Goals31.1%

2-3 Goals26.6%

Under 2.5 Goals16.1%

Exactly 3 Goals16.1%

1-2 Goals15.0%

Exactly 2 Goals10.5%

Under 1.5 Goals5.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.9%

Away Team to Score85.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.3%

Home Clean Sheet14.2%

Home Win to Nil13.2%

Away Clean Sheet6.9%

Away Win to Nil5.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.9%

Away Over 0.585.6%

Home Over 1.574.5%

Away Over 1.558.0%

Home Over 2.549.9%

Home 3+ Goals49.9%

Away Over 2.531.0%

Away 3+ Goals31.0%

Away Exactly 127.7%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 224.6%

Home Exactly 118.4%

Away Exactly 014.2%

Home Exactly 06.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)65.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away65.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)46.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away46.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home34.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.5%

Home to win by 3+19.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 118.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.3%

Home to win by 215.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.7%

Away to win by 113.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.1%

Away to win by 28.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.2%

Away to win by 3+6.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.6%

Home & Over 2.547.5%

Home & BTTS40.4%

Away & Over 2.524.2%

Away & BTTS22.1%

Draw & BTTS17.2%

Home & No BTTS13.2%

Draw & Over 2.512.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.2%

Home & Under 2.56.1%

Draw & Under 2.56.1%

Away & No BTTS5.9%

BTTS & Under 2.55.1%

Away & Under 2.53.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.6%

HT Over 1.561.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.9%

HT Home Win43.6%

HT Both Teams Score40.9%

HT Under 1.538.4%

HT/FT Home/Home35.3%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.6%

HT Away Win26.9%

Equal Goals Each Half18.7%

HT/FT Away/Away16.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.7%

HT Under 0.512.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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