France · Ligue 1

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain

Kick-off 19:45 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Marseille 29.1% Draw 24.2% Paris Saint Germain 46.8%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Marseille: 9 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Marseille

L L L W W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Paris Saint Germain

W W L D D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 13:9 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Marseille 1wins ·0 draws ·Paris Saint Germain 4wins

Marseille 0-5 Paris Saint GermainFeb 8, 2026

Marseille 1-0 Paris Saint GermainSep 22, 2025

Marseille 1-3 Paris Saint GermainMar 16, 2025

Marseille 0-3 Paris Saint GermainOct 27, 2024

Marseille 0-2 Paris Saint GermainMar 31, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Marseille win29.1%

Draw24.2%

Paris Saint Germain win46.8%

Over 1.5 goals83.8%

Over 2.5 goals87.5%

Over 3.5 goals40.2%

Both teams to score84.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

89.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.5%

Both Halves Over 0.578.1%

Goal in Both Halves78.1%

Draw or Away (X2)74.8%

Draw No Bet - Away69.3%

Away Win56.5%

Home or Draw (1X)43.4%

Draw No Bet - Home30.7%

Home Win25.1%

Draw18.3%

Exactly 1 Goal5.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.0%

Over 2.5 Goals80.8%

Under 5.5 Goals72.9%

Over 3.5 Goals63.1%

4+ Goals63.1%

Under 4.5 Goals56.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals49.1%

Over 4.5 Goals43.9%

Under 3.5 Goals36.9%

3-4 Goals36.9%

1-3 Goals35.4%

2-3 Goals29.8%

Over 5.5 Goals27.1%

Under 2.5 Goals19.2%

Exactly 3 Goals17.7%

1-2 Goals17.7%

Exactly 2 Goals12.2%

Under 1.5 Goals7.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score92.5%

Home Team to Score82.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.7%

Away Clean Sheet17.5%

Away Win to Nil16.2%

Home Clean Sheet7.3%

Home Win to Nil6.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.592.5%

Home Over 0.582.4%

Away Over 1.573.4%

Home Over 1.551.9%

Away Over 2.548.3%

Away 3+ Goals48.3%

Home Exactly 130.5%

Home Exactly 226.5%

Home Over 2.525.4%

Home 3+ Goals25.4%

Away Exactly 225.0%

Away Exactly 119.1%

Home Exactly 017.5%

Away Exactly 07.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)89.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home89.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away87.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)79.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home79.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)74.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away74.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)62.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home62.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)56.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)43.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home43.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)36.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away36.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)25.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)20.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away20.7%

Away to win by 3+20.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.6%

Away to win by 119.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.2%

Away to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.0%

Home to win by 113.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home12.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)10.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away10.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.2%

Home to win by 27.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.8%

Home to win by 3+4.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.570.5%

Away & Over 2.548.8%

Away & BTTS40.3%

Home & Over 2.520.9%

Home & BTTS19.0%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

Away & No BTTS16.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.3%

Away & Under 2.57.7%

Draw & Under 2.57.1%

Home & No BTTS6.0%

BTTS & Under 2.55.8%

Home & Under 2.54.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.9%

HT Over 1.558.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Away Win45.1%

HT Under 1.541.7%

HT Both Teams Score37.6%

HT/FT Away/Away37.4%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.4%

HT Home Win24.5%

Equal Goals Each Half19.4%

HT/FT Home/Home14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.6%

HT Under 0.514.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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