France · Ligue 1

Marseille vs Strasbourg

Kick-off 19:45 · Fri, Aug 21

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Marseille 52.5% Draw 22.8% Strasbourg 24.7%

Over 2.5 - 85% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Marseille: 10 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.4%

Exact-score model probability

Marseille

W W L D L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 8:8 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Strasbourg

W W D L L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:10 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Marseille 1wins ·3 draws ·Strasbourg 1wins

Marseille 2-2 StrasbourgFeb 14, 2026

Marseille 2-1 StrasbourgSep 26, 2025

Marseille 1-1 StrasbourgJan 19, 2025

Marseille 0-1 StrasbourgSep 29, 2024

Marseille 1-1 StrasbourgJan 12, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Marseille win52.5%

Draw22.8%

Strasbourg win24.7%

Over 1.5 goals85.7%

Over 2.5 goals84.5%

Over 3.5 goals43.6%

Both teams to score80.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

89.7%

Home Team to Score

88.7%

Home Over 0.5

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.4%

Both Halves Over 0.572.5%

Goal in Both Halves72.5%

Home or Draw (1X)70.2%

Draw No Bet - Home62.5%

Draw or Away (X2)50.3%

Home Win49.7%

Draw No Bet - Away37.5%

Away Win29.8%

Draw20.5%

Exactly 1 Goal8.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals89.7%

Under 5.5 Goals80.8%

Over 2.5 Goals74.0%

Under 4.5 Goals65.7%

2-4 Goals55.4%

Over 3.5 Goals53.7%

4+ Goals53.7%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals46.3%

1-3 Goals44.1%

3-4 Goals39.7%

2-3 Goals35.9%

Over 4.5 Goals34.3%

Under 2.5 Goals26.0%

1-2 Goals23.9%

Exactly 3 Goals20.2%

Over 5.5 Goals19.2%

Exactly 2 Goals15.7%

Under 1.5 Goals10.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.7%

Away Team to Score81.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.0%

Home Clean Sheet18.8%

Home Win to Nil16.7%

Away Clean Sheet11.3%

Away Win to Nil9.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.7%

Away Over 0.581.2%

Home Over 1.564.1%

Away Over 1.549.8%

Home Over 2.537.3%

Home 3+ Goals37.3%

Away Exactly 131.4%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 226.2%

Home Exactly 124.6%

Away Over 2.523.5%

Away 3+ Goals23.5%

Away Exactly 018.8%

Home Exactly 011.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away50.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)29.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)29.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home29.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.1%

Home to win by 120.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.4%

Away to win by 115.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.8%

Home to win by 214.8%

Home to win by 3+14.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.7%

Away to win by 28.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.7%

Away to win by 3+5.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.564.3%

Home & Over 2.540.0%

Home & BTTS33.0%

Away & Over 2.523.3%

Away & BTTS20.6%

Draw & BTTS18.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.3%

Home & No BTTS16.7%

Draw & Over 2.510.7%

Draw & Under 2.59.8%

Home & Under 2.59.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

Away & No BTTS9.1%

BTTS & Under 2.57.7%

Away & Under 2.56.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.4%

HT Over 1.551.8%

HT Under 1.548.2%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

HT Home Win39.7%

HT Draw33.3%

HT Both Teams Score33.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT/FT Home/Home31.7%

HT Away Win27.0%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT/FT Away/Away17.7%

HT Under 0.517.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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