France · Ligue 1

Marseille vs Toulouse

Kick-off 20:45 · Sun, Nov 1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

57% confidence

Marseille 57.1% Draw 22.1% Toulouse 20.8%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 95%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

85%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.6%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Marseille 3 wins, 2 draws, Toulouse 0 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.6%

Exact-score model probability

Marseille

W W W L L L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 14:11 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Toulouse

D W D W D L

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Marseille 3wins ·2 draws ·Toulouse 0wins

Marseille 1-0 ToulouseMar 7, 2026

Marseille 2-2 ToulouseNov 29, 2025

Marseille 3-2 ToulouseApr 6, 2025

Marseille 3-1 ToulouseAug 31, 2024

Marseille 2-2 ToulouseApr 21, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Marseille win57.1%

Draw22.1%

Toulouse win20.8%

Over 1.5 goals84.8%

Over 2.5 goals97.6%

Over 3.5 goals42.0%

Both teams to score94.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

92.0%

Away Team to Score

91.4%

Away Over 0.5

91.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.8%

Goal in Both Halves88.8%

Home or Away (12)82.9%

Home or Draw (1X)69.0%

Draw No Bet - Home63.6%

Home Win52.7%

Draw or Away (X2)46.5%

Draw No Bet - Away36.4%

Away Win30.2%

Draw16.3%

Exactly 1 Goal1.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals97.2%

Over 2.5 Goals92.0%

Over 3.5 Goals82.1%

4+ Goals82.1%

Over 4.5 Goals67.8%

Over 5.5 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 5.5 Goals48.8%

Under 4.5 Goals32.2%

2-4 Goals29.3%

3-4 Goals24.2%

Under 3.5 Goals17.9%

1-3 Goals16.8%

2-3 Goals15.0%

Exactly 3 Goals9.9%

Under 2.5 Goals8.0%

1-2 Goals6.9%

Exactly 2 Goals5.1%

Under 1.5 Goals2.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.4%

Away Team to Score91.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)12.2%

Home Clean Sheet7.9%

Home Win to Nil7.6%

Away Clean Sheet3.9%

Away Win to Nil3.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.4%

Away Over 0.591.4%

Home Over 1.582.8%

Away Over 1.571.4%

Home Over 2.562.4%

Home 3+ Goals62.4%

Away Over 2.546.1%

Away 3+ Goals46.1%

Away Exactly 225.3%

Home Exactly 220.4%

Away Exactly 120.0%

Home Exactly 112.5%

Away Exactly 07.9%

Home Exactly 03.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)82.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home82.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)77.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away77.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)69.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home69.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)63.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away63.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)46.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away46.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)36.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home36.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.7%

Home to win by 3+21.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)17.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away17.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.8%

Home to win by 116.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.3%

Home to win by 214.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.1%

Away to win by 113.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.7%

Away to win by 28.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.5%

Away to win by 3+8.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.585.3%

Home & Over 2.550.1%

Home & BTTS45.2%

Away & Over 2.528.4%

Away & BTTS26.7%

Draw & BTTS16.0%

Draw & Over 2.513.5%

Home & No BTTS7.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Away & No BTTS3.5%

Draw & Under 2.52.8%

Home & Under 2.52.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Away & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.6%

HT Over 1.573.4%

HT Both Teams Score52.3%

2nd Half More Goals51.0%

HT Home Win44.6%

HT/FT Home/Home35.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Away Win29.5%

HT Under 1.526.6%

HT Draw25.9%

HT/FT Away/Away18.8%

Equal Goals Each Half16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.8%

HT Under 0.57.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.0%

HT/FT Away/Home5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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