England · Championship

Middlesbrough vs Cardiff

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

Middlesbrough 76.8% Draw 11.1% Cardiff 12.1%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

89%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

86%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-2 at 5.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Middlesbrough: 11 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.1%

Exact-score model probability

Middlesbrough

W D D W L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 12:12 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2

Cardiff

W L W L D L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Middlesbrough win76.8%

Draw11.1%

Cardiff win12.1%

Over 1.5 goals99.1%

Over 2.5 goals95.7%

Over 3.5 goals88.7%

Both teams to score86.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.592.2%

Goal in Both Halves92.2%

Draw No Bet - Home86.2%

Home or Away (12)85.7%

Home or Draw (1X)84.2%

Home Win73.9%

Draw or Away (X2)22.1%

Draw No Bet - Away13.8%

Away Win11.8%

Draw10.3%

Exactly 1 Goal0.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.9%

Over 2.5 Goals91.8%

Over 3.5 Goals85.1%

4+ Goals85.1%

Over 4.5 Goals74.1%

Over 5.5 Goals59.7%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals40.3%

Under 4.5 Goals25.9%

2-4 Goals20.8%

3-4 Goals17.7%

Under 3.5 Goals14.9%

1-3 Goals10.7%

2-3 Goals9.8%

Under 2.5 Goals8.2%

Exactly 3 Goals6.7%

Under 1.5 Goals5.1%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

1-2 Goals4.0%

Exactly 2 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score83.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.4%

Home Clean Sheet12.4%

Home Win to Nil12.2%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.583.6%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.558.2%

Away Over 2.532.3%

Away 3+ Goals32.3%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Exactly 125.4%

Away Exactly 012.4%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)79.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away79.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)66.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away66.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)59.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home59.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.2%

Home to win by 3+44.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)36.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away36.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)22.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away22.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.9%

Home to win by 113.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.3%

Away to win by 16.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.3%

Away to win by 23.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.2%

Away to win by 3+2.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.3%

Home & Over 2.571.8%

Home & BTTS61.6%

Home & No BTTS12.2%

Away & Over 2.511.2%

Away & BTTS10.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.5%

Draw & BTTS10.1%

Draw & Over 2.58.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.8%

Home & Under 2.52.1%

Draw & Under 2.51.5%

BTTS & Under 2.51.3%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.7%

HT Over 1.579.2%

HT Home Win63.0%

HT/FT Home/Home57.8%

HT Both Teams Score52.2%

2nd Half More Goals52.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Under 1.520.8%

HT Draw20.7%

HT Away Win16.3%

Equal Goals Each Half15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.8%

HT/FT Away/Away6.9%

HT/FT Away/Home6.1%

HT Under 0.55.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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