England · Championship

Middlesbrough vs Lincoln

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 15

📊 Our Prediction

Away Win

62% confidence

Middlesbrough 16.0% Draw 22.0% Lincoln 62.0%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 53%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

Strong away form

⚠️ AIs disagree

64%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

High xG values

79%

Draw or Away (X2)

Lincoln's advantage

75%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Middlesbrough and Lincoln have a significant form gap, with Lincoln showing stronger attacking threat. Middlesbrough's defensive strength is a concern, especially with Lincoln's recent goal-scoring record. The absence of key players for Middlesbrough could impact their performance. Lincoln's pi-rating advantage also gives them an edge.

💡

Top Tip

Lincoln's strong away form makes Away Win a compelling pick

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Lincoln's chance of scoring three or more is only 32.3%, which supports the selected team-goals market.

Strong away form

Numbers behind this Away Win

Lincoln 3+ goals

32.3%

Model chance of scoring at least three

Lincoln under 3 goals

67.7%

Probability behind the selected NO market

Middlesbrough

W L L D D

Form 1-2-2 Goals 4:5 Scored/game 0.8 Conceded/game 1

Lincoln

Form 1-0-0 Goals 2:1 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Middlesbrough win16.0%

Draw22.0%

Lincoln win62.0%

Over 1.5 goals80.1%

Over 2.5 goals56.0%

Over 3.5 goals33.5%

Both teams to score53.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

86.4%

Away Over 0.5

86.4%

Draw or Away (X2)

83.4%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)83.4%

Home or Away (12)79.0%

Draw No Bet - Away79.0%

Away Win62.5%

Both Halves Over 0.558.5%

Goal in Both Halves58.5%

Home or Draw (1X)37.5%

Draw No Bet - Home21.0%

Draw20.9%

Home Win16.6%

Exactly 1 Goal15.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.6%

Under 5.5 Goals92.4%

Under 4.5 Goals82.9%

Over 1.5 Goals78.8%

Under 3.5 Goals66.5%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals61.1%

Over 2.5 Goals55.8%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.4%

Under 2.5 Goals44.2%

1-2 Goals38.7%

3-4 Goals38.7%

Over 3.5 Goals33.5%

4+ Goals33.5%

Exactly 2 Goals23.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals21.2%

Over 4.5 Goals17.1%

Over 5.5 Goals7.6%

Under 0.5 Goals5.4%

Exactly 0 Goals5.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score86.4%

Home Team to Score60.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.0%

Away Clean Sheet39.8%

Away Win to Nil34.4%

Home Clean Sheet13.5%

Home Win to Nil8.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.586.4%

Home Over 0.560.1%

Away Over 1.559.4%

Home Exactly 039.8%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Away Over 2.532.3%

Away 3+ Goals32.3%

Away Exactly 127.1%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Over 1.523.5%

Home Exactly 216.9%

Away Exactly 013.5%

Home Over 2.56.6%

Home 3+ Goals6.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)83.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away83.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home80.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)62.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)61.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home61.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)38.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away38.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)37.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home37.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.3%

Away to win by 124.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)19.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away19.1%

Away to win by 219.1%

Away to win by 3+19.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.2%

Home to win by 111.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away7.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.0%

Home to win by 24.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.4%

Home to win by 3+1.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.542.1%

Away & Over 2.540.9%

Away & No BTTS34.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.534.2%

Away & BTTS28.0%

Away & Under 2.521.6%

Draw & BTTS15.5%

Draw & Under 2.515.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.8%

BTTS & Under 2.59.9%

Home & Over 2.59.3%

Home & BTTS8.4%

Home & No BTTS8.1%

Home & Under 2.57.2%

Draw & Over 2.55.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.1%

HT Under 1.562.2%

HT Away Win45.8%

2nd Half More Goals44.3%

HT/FT Away/Away40.5%

HT Draw37.9%

HT Over 1.537.8%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT Under 0.526.9%

Equal Goals Each Half24.4%

HT Both Teams Score20.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away19.0%

HT Home Win16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.5%

HT/FT Home/Home9.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions