England · Championship

Middlesbrough vs Norwich

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

75% confidence

Middlesbrough 75.0% Draw 14.2% Norwich 10.8%

Over 2.5 - 83% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Norwich: 10 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.8%

Exact-score model probability

Middlesbrough

L W D W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Norwich

W W L W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Middlesbrough win75.0%

Draw14.2%

Norwich win10.8%

Over 1.5 goals94.8%

Over 2.5 goals83.4%

Over 3.5 goals66.9%

Both teams to score70.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

88.1%

Home or Draw (1X)

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.0%

Draw No Bet - Home86.9%

Home or Away (12)86.4%

Both Halves Over 0.580.2%

Goal in Both Halves80.2%

Home Win75.1%

Draw or Away (X2)24.3%

Draw No Bet - Away13.1%

Draw12.9%

Away Win11.3%

Exactly 1 Goal4.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals93.6%

Over 2.5 Goals82.9%

Under 5.5 Goals69.6%

Over 3.5 Goals66.4%

4+ Goals66.4%

Under 4.5 Goals52.4%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Over 4.5 Goals47.6%

2-4 Goals46.0%

3-4 Goals35.2%

Under 3.5 Goals33.6%

1-3 Goals31.9%

Over 5.5 Goals30.4%

2-3 Goals27.2%

Under 2.5 Goals17.1%

Exactly 3 Goals16.4%

1-2 Goals15.5%

Exactly 2 Goals10.8%

Under 1.5 Goals6.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.6%

Away Team to Score72.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.6%

Home Clean Sheet27.2%

Home Win to Nil26.2%

Away Clean Sheet3.7%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.6%

Home Over 1.583.3%

Away Over 0.572.1%

Home Over 2.563.1%

Home 3+ Goals63.1%

Away Over 1.536.9%

Away Exactly 135.2%

Away Exactly 027.2%

Away Exactly 222.8%

Home Exactly 220.2%

Away Over 2.514.1%

Away 3+ Goals14.1%

Home Exactly 112.3%

Home Exactly 03.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)61.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away61.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)57.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home57.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)42.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away42.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)38.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home38.2%

Home to win by 3+38.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 219.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 117.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.1%

Away to win by 17.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.0%

Away to win by 23.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.3%

Away to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.566.2%

BTTS & Over 2.565.1%

Home & BTTS48.9%

Home & No BTTS26.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.1%

Draw & BTTS11.9%

Away & Over 2.59.1%

Home & Under 2.58.9%

Away & BTTS8.6%

Draw & Over 2.57.5%

Draw & Under 2.55.4%

BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.3%

HT Over 1.561.0%

HT Home Win59.1%

HT/FT Home/Home54.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.8%

HT Under 1.539.0%

HT Both Teams Score34.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw26.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.7%

HT Away Win14.6%

HT Under 0.512.7%

HT/FT Away/Away6.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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