England · League Cup

Middlesbrough vs Wrexham

Kick-off 20:00 · Fri, Aug 7

📊 Our Prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

53% confidence

Middlesbrough 26.0% Draw 21.0% Wrexham 53.0%

Over 2.5 - 79% BTTS - 76%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

High xG values

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score (GG)

High BTTS rate

75%

Away Win

Wrexham stronger

73%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Middlesbrough and Wrexham have a recent history with a 2-2 draw. Wrexham's signing of Ben Whiteman may boost their midfield. Middlesbrough's injury concerns, including Max Arfsten and Kyle Joseph, could impact their performance. With Wrexham's expected goals at 2.5, they pose a significant attacking threat. 5 Goals is the strongest pick due to the high expected goals from both teams.

💡

Top Tip

Over 1

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Both Teams to Score is rated at 76.1% by the model, supported by each side's recent scoring profile.

High xG values

Numbers behind this Over 1.5 Goals

BTTS probability

76.1%

Both teams to score

Middlesbrough BTTS

50%

Across recent matches

Wrexham BTTS

100%

Across recent matches

Middlesbrough

L L D D

Form 0-2-2 Goals 3:5 Scored/game 0.75 Conceded/game 1.25

Wrexham

Form 0-1-0 Goals 2:2 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 1

Middlesbrough 0wins ·1 draws ·Wrexham 0wins

Middlesbrough 2-2 WrexhamMay 2, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Middlesbrough win26.0%

Draw21.0%

Wrexham win53.0%

Over 1.5 goals93.2%

Over 2.5 goals79.2%

Over 3.5 goals60.9%

Both teams to score76.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

91.7%

Away Over 0.5

91.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.0%

Both Halves Over 0.576.7%

Goal in Both Halves76.7%

Draw or Away (X2)73.6%

Draw No Bet - Away67.6%

Away Win54.8%

Home or Draw (1X)45.1%

Draw No Bet - Home32.4%

Home Win26.2%

Draw18.9%

Exactly 1 Goal6.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.2%

Over 2.5 Goals79.2%

Under 5.5 Goals75.0%

Over 3.5 Goals60.8%

4+ Goals60.8%

Under 4.5 Goals58.6%

2-4 Goals50.9%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals41.4%

Under 3.5 Goals39.2%

3-4 Goals37.8%

1-3 Goals37.6%

2-3 Goals31.4%

Over 5.5 Goals25.0%

Under 2.5 Goals20.8%

1-2 Goals19.2%

Exactly 3 Goals18.4%

Exactly 2 Goals13.1%

Under 1.5 Goals7.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score91.7%

Home Team to Score82.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.7%

Away Clean Sheet17.8%

Away Win to Nil16.3%

Home Clean Sheet8.2%

Home Win to Nil6.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.591.7%

Home Over 0.582.1%

Away Over 1.571.2%

Home Over 1.551.4%

Away Over 2.545.5%

Away 3+ Goals45.5%

Home Exactly 130.7%

Home Exactly 226.5%

Away Exactly 225.6%

Home Over 2.524.9%

Home 3+ Goals24.9%

Away Exactly 120.5%

Home Exactly 017.8%

Away Exactly 08.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away87.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home80.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)73.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away73.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)64.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home64.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)54.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)45.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home45.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)35.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away35.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)26.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.8%

Away to win by 119.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)19.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away19.1%

Away to win by 3+19.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.9%

Away to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.6%

Home to win by 113.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home12.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.6%

Home to win by 27.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.0%

Home to win by 3+5.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.0%

Away & Over 2.546.5%

Away & BTTS38.4%

Home & Over 2.521.5%

Home & BTTS19.5%

Draw & BTTS17.4%

Away & No BTTS16.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.4%

Draw & Over 2.511.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.2%

Away & Under 2.58.2%

Draw & Under 2.57.8%

Home & No BTTS6.7%

BTTS & Under 2.56.3%

Home & Under 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.1%

HT Over 1.556.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.0%

HT Away Win43.7%

HT Under 1.543.3%

HT Both Teams Score36.5%

HT/FT Away/Away35.9%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw31.1%

HT Home Win25.2%

Equal Goals Each Half19.7%

HT/FT Home/Home15.6%

HT Under 0.514.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Middlesbrough win33%

Draw33%

Wrexham win33%

AdviceNo predictions available

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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