England · Championship

Millwall vs Derby

Kick-off 16:00 · Sat, Oct 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

64% confidence

Millwall 63.9% Draw 19.5% Derby 16.6%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Millwall: 6 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Millwall

L D L W D D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Derby

D L L D D D

Form 0-4-2 Goals 4:8 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Millwall win63.9%

Draw19.5%

Derby win16.6%

Over 1.5 goals90.5%

Over 2.5 goals73.7%

Over 3.5 goals53.3%

Both teams to score67.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

89.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

87.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

87.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)82.4%

Home or Away (12)82.2%

Draw No Bet - Home78.7%

Both Halves Over 0.572.2%

Goal in Both Halves72.2%

Home Win64.7%

Draw or Away (X2)35.1%

Draw No Bet - Away21.3%

Draw17.6%

Away Win17.5%

Exactly 1 Goal8.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals89.4%

Under 5.5 Goals81.1%

Over 2.5 Goals73.6%

Under 4.5 Goals66.2%

2-4 Goals55.6%

Over 3.5 Goals53.3%

4+ Goals53.3%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals46.7%

1-3 Goals44.4%

3-4 Goals39.8%

2-3 Goals36.2%

Over 4.5 Goals33.8%

Under 2.5 Goals26.4%

1-2 Goals24.1%

Exactly 3 Goals20.3%

Over 5.5 Goals18.9%

Exactly 2 Goals15.9%

Under 1.5 Goals10.6%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals2.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.1%

Away Team to Score72.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.4%

Home Clean Sheet27.7%

Home Win to Nil25.5%

Away Clean Sheet7.8%

Away Win to Nil5.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.1%

Home Over 1.572.2%

Away Over 0.572.2%

Home Over 2.546.8%

Home 3+ Goals46.8%

Away Over 1.536.7%

Away Exactly 135.5%

Away Exactly 027.7%

Home Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 222.8%

Home Exactly 119.9%

Away Over 2.513.9%

Away 3+ Goals13.9%

Home Exactly 07.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)74.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away74.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)64.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)56.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away56.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)43.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home43.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)35.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away35.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home25.0%

Home to win by 3+25.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.0%

Home to win by 121.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.6%

Home to win by 218.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.6%

Away to win by 110.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 24.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.2%

Away to win by 3+2.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.5%

Home & Over 2.552.2%

Home & BTTS39.2%

Home & No BTTS25.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.2%

Draw & BTTS15.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.1%

Away & Over 2.513.0%

Home & Under 2.512.5%

Away & BTTS11.9%

Draw & Under 2.59.2%

Draw & Over 2.58.4%

BTTS & Under 2.57.1%

Away & No BTTS5.6%

Away & Under 2.54.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.2%

HT Over 1.551.5%

HT Home Win49.7%

HT Under 1.548.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

HT/FT Home/Home43.7%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw31.7%

HT Both Teams Score30.0%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT Away Win18.6%

HT Under 0.517.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.0%

HT/FT Away/Away9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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