England · League Cup

Millwall vs Newcastle

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Sep 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

Millwall 57.8% Draw 22.8% Newcastle 19.4%

Over 2.5 - 65% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

63%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Millwall: 12 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.7%

Exact-score model probability

Millwall

W L L W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Newcastle

D W W D L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 12:9 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Millwall win57.8%

Draw22.8%

Newcastle win19.4%

Over 1.5 goals85.8%

Over 2.5 goals64.9%

Over 3.5 goals42.9%

Both teams to score62.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.5%

Home or Draw (1X)79.4%

Draw No Bet - Home74.1%

Both Halves Over 0.565.4%

Goal in Both Halves65.4%

Home Win58.9%

Draw or Away (X2)41.0%

Draw No Bet - Away25.9%

Away Win20.6%

Draw20.4%

Exactly 1 Goal11.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.4%

Under 5.5 Goals87.8%

Over 1.5 Goals84.6%

Under 4.5 Goals75.5%

Over 2.5 Goals64.9%

2-4 Goals60.1%

Under 3.5 Goals57.1%

1-3 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals42.9%

4+ Goals42.9%

2-3 Goals41.8%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals35.1%

1-2 Goals31.6%

Over 4.5 Goals24.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Exactly 2 Goals19.8%

Under 1.5 Goals15.4%

Over 5.5 Goals12.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.6%

Exactly 0 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.2%

Away Team to Score69.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.4%

Home Clean Sheet30.2%

Home Win to Nil26.6%

Away Clean Sheet11.7%

Away Win to Nil8.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.2%

Away Over 0.569.8%

Home Over 1.563.1%

Home Over 2.536.2%

Home 3+ Goals36.2%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Away Over 1.533.7%

Away Exactly 030.2%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 125.1%

Away Exactly 221.6%

Away Over 2.512.0%

Away 3+ Goals12.0%

Home Exactly 011.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)63.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away63.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)58.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)36.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home36.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.5%

Home to win by 122.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.7%

Home to win by 3+18.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 217.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.6%

Away to win by 112.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.5%

Away to win by 25.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.5%

Away to win by 3+2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.552.5%

Home & Over 2.543.2%

Home & BTTS32.3%

Home & No BTTS26.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.0%

Draw & BTTS16.9%

Home & Under 2.515.7%

Away & Over 2.513.8%

Draw & Under 2.512.6%

Away & BTTS12.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.3%

BTTS & Under 2.59.1%

Away & No BTTS8.2%

Draw & Over 2.57.8%

Away & Under 2.56.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.8%

HT Under 1.555.7%

2nd Half More Goals45.7%

HT Home Win44.7%

HT Over 1.544.3%

HT/FT Home/Home38.3%

HT Draw35.4%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score25.8%

Equal Goals Each Half22.5%

HT Under 0.522.2%

HT Away Win20.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.1%

HT/FT Away/Away11.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions