England · Championship

Millwall vs Swansea

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Oct 13

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Millwall 34.3% Draw 20.7% Swansea 45.0%

Over 2.5 - 83% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

81%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Swansea: 8 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

Millwall

W D D L L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Swansea

W W W L D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Millwall win34.3%

Draw20.7%

Swansea win45.0%

Over 1.5 goals94.6%

Over 2.5 goals82.7%

Over 3.5 goals65.8%

Both teams to score80.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.0%

Away Team to Score

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.6%

Both Halves Over 0.579.5%

Goal in Both Halves79.5%

Draw or Away (X2)64.9%

Draw No Bet - Away56.6%

Home or Draw (1X)54.2%

Away Win45.7%

Draw No Bet - Home43.4%

Home Win35.0%

Draw19.2%

Exactly 1 Goal5.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals93.8%

Over 2.5 Goals82.6%

Under 5.5 Goals70.3%

Over 3.5 Goals65.7%

4+ Goals65.7%

Under 4.5 Goals53.2%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals47.0%

Over 4.5 Goals46.8%

3-4 Goals35.8%

Under 3.5 Goals34.3%

1-3 Goals33.0%

Over 5.5 Goals29.7%

2-3 Goals28.1%

Under 2.5 Goals17.4%

Exactly 3 Goals16.8%

1-2 Goals16.2%

Exactly 2 Goals11.2%

Under 1.5 Goals6.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score90.8%

Home Team to Score87.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.3%

Away Clean Sheet12.2%

Away Win to Nil11.1%

Home Clean Sheet9.1%

Home Win to Nil8.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.590.8%

Home Over 0.587.7%

Away Over 1.569.0%

Home Over 1.562.1%

Away Over 2.542.9%

Away 3+ Goals42.9%

Home Over 2.535.1%

Home 3+ Goals35.1%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 125.6%

Away Exactly 121.8%

Home Exactly 012.2%

Away Exactly 09.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)85.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home85.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)72.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home72.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)64.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away64.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)54.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home54.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)45.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)35.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)27.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away27.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.1%

Away to win by 118.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 115.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)14.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away14.2%

Away to win by 3+14.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.3%

Away to win by 213.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.3%

Home to win by 210.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.8%

Home to win by 3+8.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.2%

Away & Over 2.539.8%

Away & BTTS34.6%

Home & Over 2.530.2%

Home & BTTS27.0%

Draw & BTTS18.1%

Draw & Over 2.512.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.7%

Away & No BTTS11.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.4%

Home & No BTTS8.0%

Draw & Under 2.56.7%

Away & Under 2.55.8%

BTTS & Under 2.55.6%

Home & Under 2.54.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.8%

HT Over 1.560.1%

2nd Half More Goals48.7%

HT Both Teams Score40.4%

HT Under 1.539.9%

HT Away Win38.2%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Home Win31.3%

HT Draw30.5%

HT/FT Away/Away29.2%

HT/FT Home/Home21.5%

Equal Goals Each Half19.0%

HT Under 0.513.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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