USA · Major League Soccer

Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City

Full time · 0:1

📊 Our Prediction

HT Over 0.5

50% confidence

Minnesota United FC 49.5% Draw 14.6% Sporting Kansas City 35.9%

Over 2.5 - 99% BTTS - 97%

✓ Pick was correct (0:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The 1X2 model's strongest outcome is Minnesota United FC win at 49.5%.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Sporting Kansas City: 3 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this HT Over 0.5

Minnesota United FC win

49.5%

1X2 model probability

Draw

14.6%

1X2 model probability

Sporting Kansas City win

35.9%

1X2 model probability

Minnesota United FC

D D D L L L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 9:14 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.33

Sporting Kansas City

L L L D L W

Form 1-1-4 Goals 8:14 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.33

Head to head · last 1

Minnesota United FC 0wins ·0 draws ·Sporting Kansas City 1wins

Minnesota United FC 1-2 Sporting Kansas CityJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Minnesota United FC win49.5%

Draw14.6%

Sporting Kansas City win35.9%

Over 1.5 goals99.8%

Over 2.5 goals99.0%

Over 3.5 goals96.7%

Both teams to score97.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

91.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.596.8%

Goal in Both Halves96.8%

Home or Away (12)80.4%

Home or Draw (1X)60.2%

Draw No Bet - Home57.9%

Draw or Away (X2)47.5%

Home Win46.6%

Draw No Bet - Away42.1%

Away Win33.8%

Draw13.7%

Exactly 1 Goal0.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.0%

Over 1.5 Goals93.9%

Over 2.5 Goals93.1%

Over 3.5 Goals90.9%

4+ Goals90.9%

Over 4.5 Goals86.4%

Over 5.5 Goals78.7%

Total Goals Odd47.0%

Total Goals Even47.0%

Under 5.5 Goals21.3%

Under 4.5 Goals13.6%

Under 3.5 Goals9.1%

2-4 Goals7.5%

Under 2.5 Goals6.9%

3-4 Goals6.7%

Under 1.5 Goals6.1%

Under 0.5 Goals6.0%

1-3 Goals3.1%

2-3 Goals2.9%

Exactly 3 Goals2.2%

1-2 Goals0.9%

Exactly 2 Goals0.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.0%

Away Team to Score92.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)91.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)8.9%

Home Clean Sheet1.8%

Home Win to Nil1.8%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.0%

Away Over 0.592.2%

Home Over 1.588.1%

Away Over 1.584.9%

Home Over 2.577.1%

Home 3+ Goals77.1%

Away Over 2.570.5%

Away 3+ Goals70.5%

Away Exactly 214.4%

Home Exactly 211.0%

Away Exactly 17.3%

Home Exactly 14.9%

Away Exactly 01.8%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)93.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home91.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home87.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)81.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home81.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home72.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)61.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away61.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)60.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home60.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)46.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)33.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)32.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home32.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)21.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away21.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.9%

Home to win by 3+20.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.7%

Home to win by 113.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away12.6%

Away to win by 3+12.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.0%

Home to win by 212.0%

Away to win by 112.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.2%

Away to win by 29.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.590.8%

Home & Over 2.546.3%

Home & BTTS44.7%

Away & Over 2.533.6%

Away & BTTS32.8%

Draw & BTTS13.7%

Draw & Over 2.513.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.52.3%

Home & No BTTS1.8%

Away & No BTTS1.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.50.6%

Draw & Under 2.50.4%

BTTS & Under 2.50.4%

Home & Under 2.50.3%

Away & Under 2.50.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.597.7%

HT Over 1.589.2%

HT Both Teams Score72.1%

2nd Half More Goals54.4%

HT Home Win44.3%

HT Away Win34.5%

HT/FT Home/Home34.1%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT/FT Away/Away23.0%

HT Draw21.1%

Equal Goals Each Half13.4%

HT Under 1.510.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.4%

HT/FT Away/Home6.6%

HT/FT Home/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.0%

HT Under 0.52.3%

Corners (12)

Home Most Corners88.7%

Under 11.5 Corners87.9%

Under 10.5 Corners80.3%

Home Over 4.5 Corners71.5%

Under 9.5 Corners70.1%

Under 8.5 Corners57.5%

Over 8.5 Corners42.5%

Over 9.5 Corners29.9%

Over 10.5 Corners19.7%

Over 11.5 Corners12.1%

Away Over 4.5 Corners6.5%

Away Most Corners5.6%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards84.1%

Over 2.5 Cards70.2%

Under 4.5 Cards70.2%

Under 3.5 Cards51.0%

Over 3.5 Cards49.0%

Under 2.5 Cards29.8%

Over 4.5 Cards29.8%

Over 5.5 Cards15.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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