Brazil · Serie A

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG

Kick-off 22:30 · Sat, Nov 14

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Mirassol 51.1% Draw 24.1% Atletico-MG 24.8%

Over 2.5 - 65% BTTS - 66%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 75.2% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 24.8% on the only losing outcome.

Goal-line projection

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

75.2%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

24.8%

Only the uncovered result loses

Mirassol

W L D W L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Atletico-MG

L W D W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Mirassol 0wins ·0 draws ·Atletico-MG 1wins

Mirassol 1-3 Atletico-MGMay 16, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Mirassol win51.1%

Draw24.1%

Atletico-MG win24.8%

Over 1.5 goals86.1%

Over 2.5 goals65.3%

Over 3.5 goals43.4%

Both teams to score65.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

88.8%

Under 5.5 Goals

87.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.3%

Home or Draw (1X)73.9%

Draw No Bet - Home66.7%

Both Halves Over 0.565.7%

Goal in Both Halves65.7%

Home Win52.3%

Draw or Away (X2)47.7%

Draw No Bet - Away33.3%

Away Win26.0%

Draw21.7%

Exactly 1 Goal11.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.5%

Under 5.5 Goals87.5%

Over 1.5 Goals84.9%

Under 4.5 Goals75.1%

Over 2.5 Goals65.3%

2-4 Goals60.0%

Under 3.5 Goals56.6%

1-3 Goals53.2%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals43.4%

4+ Goals43.4%

2-3 Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.7%

1-2 Goals31.2%

Over 4.5 Goals24.9%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Exactly 2 Goals19.6%

Under 1.5 Goals15.1%

Over 5.5 Goals12.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score86.5%

Away Team to Score74.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.7%

Home Clean Sheet25.6%

Home Win to Nil22.1%

Away Clean Sheet13.5%

Away Win to Nil10.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.586.5%

Away Over 0.574.4%

Home Over 1.559.4%

Away Over 1.539.5%

Away Exactly 134.9%

Home Over 2.532.3%

Home 3+ Goals32.3%

Home Exactly 127.1%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 025.6%

Away Exactly 223.8%

Away Over 2.515.8%

Away 3+ Goals15.8%

Home Exactly 013.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)73.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home73.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)26.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.8%

Home to win by 121.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.8%

Away to win by 114.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.7%

Home to win by 3+14.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 27.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 3+3.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.554.9%

Home & Over 2.538.4%

Home & BTTS30.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.2%

Home & No BTTS22.1%

Draw & BTTS18.2%

Away & Over 2.518.1%

Away & BTTS16.0%

Home & Under 2.513.8%

Draw & Under 2.512.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.4%

Away & No BTTS10.1%

BTTS & Under 2.59.4%

Draw & Over 2.58.8%

Away & Under 2.57.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.0%

HT Under 1.555.3%

2nd Half More Goals45.8%

HT Over 1.544.7%

HT Home Win40.4%

HT Draw35.9%

HT/FT Home/Home33.1%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score27.2%

HT Away Win23.7%

Equal Goals Each Half22.5%

HT Under 0.522.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.7%

HT/FT Away/Away15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions